The false promise of nuclear risk reduction

Dados Bibliográficos

ID3684063
AutoresBenoît Pelopidas (0000-0002-0987-5570, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique), Kjølv Egeland (0000-0001-9818-698X, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
Ano2024
Volume100
Fascículo1
Páginas345-360
Data de publicação2024-01-08
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoInternational Affairs (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 0020-5850 • E-ISSN: 1468-2346
EditoraOxford University Press (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1093/ia/iiad290
OpenAlexW4390669618
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas7
Referências citadas13

In a context of intensifying great power competition and deep divergences of view between nuclear and non-nuclear powers on the urgency of nuclear abolition, 'nuclear risk reduction' has gained renewed attention as a pragmatic framework for managing and progressively reducing nuclear dangers. The idea is simple: with more fundamental policy changes either undesirable or out of reach, advocates of nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament should focus their efforts on the international community's shared interest in reducing the risk of nuclear use and escalation, identifying and implementing limited measures to sequester nuclear risk scenarios. Drawing on historical scholarship, archival documents and theories of 'normal' and 'epistemic' accidents, we argue that the risk reduction agenda offers a false promise for those seeking durable, shared solutions to the nuclear predicament. The risk reduction framework demands access to an unattainable level of knowledge, encourages overconfidence in managerial control and fails to provide meaningful policy guidance. Examining in detail the scholarship of Thomas Schelling, we maintain that the risk reduction agenda remains heavily circumscribed by the requirements of credible nuclear deterrence

Business · Context (archaeology) · Deterrence theory · Disarmament · Economics · Law and economics · Nuclear ethics · Nuclear power · Nuclear weapon · Overconfidence effect · Political science · Positive economics · Risk analysis (engineering) · Scholarship · History · Law · Nuclear and radioactivity studies · Nuclear Issues and Defense · Psychology · Risk Perception and Management · Social Psychology