Skip to main content

ETHNOS_APP

Home • Search • Journals • List 0

The Effect of Political Trust on the Presidential Vote, 1968-96

Bibliographic Data

ID3765409
AuthorsMarc J Hetherington (0000-0002-4707-0132, corresponding author)
Year1999
Volume93
Issue2
Pages311-326
Publication date1999-06-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueAmerican Political Science Review (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0003-0554 • E-ISSN: 1537-5943
PublisherCambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.2307/2585398
OpenAlexW2111247447
LanguageEN
Citations received181
References cited34

Scholars have consistently demonstrated that no link exists between declining political trust and declining turnout, but they have paid less attention to the effect of trust on vote choice. In an era characterized by declining trust, the incumbent party has lost, and third parties have strongly contested, four of the last eight presidential elections. Such outcomes are historically anomalous. This study demonstrates that declining political trust affects vote choice, but the electoral beneficiary differs according to electoral context. In two-candidate races, politically distrustful voters support candidates from the nonincumbent major party. In races with three viable candidates, third-party alternatives benefit from declining political trust at the expense of both major parties

Beneficiary · Blind trust · Context (archaeology · Contingent vote · Economics · Geography · Group voting ticket · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Presidential election · Presidential system · Turnout · Voter turnout · Voting · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Law · Social Capital and Networks · Social Media and Politics

  • Trust in institutions

    Open Access•Kim-Lee Tuxhorn, John D’attoma et al.•Journal of Behavioral Public…•2019

  • Ketika Pak Pos Tidak Hanya Mengantar Surat

    Open Access•Selma Soraya Viollina•Lembaran Antropologi•2022

  • Improving Public Opinion Surveys

    Open Access•John H Aldrich, Kathleen M Mcgraw•Improving public opinion surveys•2011

  • The Psychological Underpinnings of Political Behavior

    Open Access•Jon A Krosnick, Penny S Visser et al.•Handbook of Social Psychology•2010

  • The Appearance of Corruption

    Daron R Shaw, Brian E Roberts et al.•Appearance of Corruption•2021

  • Democratic Challenges, Democratic Choices

    Russell J Dalton•DEMOCRATIC CHALLENGES, DEMOCRATIC…•2004

  • Social Capital, Impartiality and the Welfare State

    Open Access•Bo Rothstein, Dietlind Stolle•Generating Social Capital•2003

  • Social Identity Threats

    Open Access•Muniba Saleem, Magdalena Wojcieszak et al.•Journal of Communication•2019

  • From kilometres to detachment

    Open Access•Jakub Jusko, Petr Voda•Territory Politics Governance•2026

  • Support for populist candidates predicted by declining social capital and an increase in suicides

    Open Access•Robert Lynch, N Lynch et al.•SN Social Sciences•2022

  • The opposing roles of patriotism and nationalism in explaining trust in a political system

    Open Access•Ivars Austers, Girts Dimdins et al.•Social Sciences & Humanities Open•2024

  • Citizens’ perceptions of closing the gender pay gap

    Madinah F Hamidullah, Norma M Riccucci et al.•Public Management Review•2021

  • Life Satisfaction and Incumbent Voting

    Open Access•Jason Wei Jian Ng, Santha Vaithilingam et al.•Journal of Happiness Studies•2022

  • Firing the monk when the ceremony is over

    Open Access•Christian S Chan, Christy Y F Wong et al.•Asian Journal Of Social Psychology•2021

  • Well-being foundations of populism in Europe

    Open Access•Rui Silva, Rui Miguel Silva•European Journal of Political…•2024

  • Seeing through the ad? An investigation of persuasion awareness, coping mechanisms, and credibility for targeted political advertisements

    Open Access•Martin-Pieter Jansen, Yannic Meier et al.•Behaviour and Information…•2026

  • When Voting Becomes Protest

    Open Access•Simon Otje, Katherine Stroebe et al.•Social Psychological and…•2020

  • In Government We Distrust

    Open Access•Joseph Gershtenson, Dennis L Plane•The Forum•2015

  • The Dynamics of External Political Efficacy in the 2020 Kaohsiung and 2021 Busan Mayoral By-Elections

    Jinhyeok Jang•Issues & Studies•2025

  • Revisiting the Urban Electoral Processes

    Open Access•Anamika Ajay, Unna V Govindarajan•Environment and Urbanization Asia•2011

  • The Effects of Strategic News on Political Cynicism and Vote Choice Among Young Voters

    Open Access•Matthijs Elenbaas, Claes H De Vreese•Journal of Communication•2008

  • The Institutional Effects of Executive Scandals

    Open Access•Brandon Rottinghaus•Institutional Effects of…•2015

  • Polarization and the Decline of Economic Voting in American National Elections

    Open Access•Christopher Ellis, Christopher R Ellis et al.•Social Science Quarterly•2021

  • Are socio-demographic and economic characteristics good predictors of misinformation during an epidemic

    Open Access•Elisa M Maffioli, Robert Gonzalez et al.•PLOS Global Public Health•2022

  • Race politics research and the American presidency

    Open Access•Beyza E Buyuker, Amanda Jadidi D'Urso et al.•The Journal of Race Ethnicity and…•2021

  • The Power of the Older Vote in Culiacan in 2021

    Open Access•Renato Pintor-Sandoval, Daniel Palomino Rodríguez et al.•Latin American Policy•2026

  • Responsiveness, Performance and Corruption

    Open Access•Mariano Torcal, Pablo Christmann•Frontiers in Political Science•2021

  • The political economy of energy access

    Open Access•Michaël Aklin, Patrick Bayer et al.•Energy Research & Social Science•2015

  • Declining Trust in Congress

    Open Access•David R Jones•The Forum•2015

  • Selling Politics? How the Traits of Salespeople Manifest Themselves in Irish Politicians

    Open Access•Dónal Ó Mearáin, Roger Sherlock et al.•Open Journal of Political Science•2013

  • Perceived police performance, racial experiences, and trust in local government

    Andrea Silva, Diego Esparza et al.•Politics Groups and Identities•2020

  • Trust in government

    R Wilkes•Journal of Trust Research•2014

  • Better service delivery, more satisfied citizens? The mediating effects of local government management capacity in South Korea

    Open Access•Gwanseob Shin, Byong‐kuen Jhee•Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies•2021

  • Political Alienation

    Open Access•Priscilla L Southwell•Review of European Studies•2012

  • Social Welfare Attitudes and Ambivalence about the Role of Government

    Open Access•J Gainous, Stephen C Craig et al.•Politics & Policy•2008

  • Does the Political Candidate’s Quality Lead to Satisfaction? Transposition of the SERVQUAL Model to Politics (Votqual)

    Walid Khalil, Georges Aoun•Journal of Political Marketing•2020

  • Consumer sentiment and government confidence

    Open Access•Véronique Flambard, Nicolas Vaillant•French Politics•2014

  • Political Trust, Satisfaction and Voter Turnout

    Open Access•Kimmo Grönlund, Maija Setälä•Comparative European Politics•2007

  • Immigration and political distrust in Europe

    Open Access•Anne-Marie Jeannet•European Societies•2019

  • Multidimensional political trust and its effects on political activism in nondemocracies

    Open Access•Yue Guan•The British Journal of Politics…•2025

  • Reimagining Education's Role in the Imagined Community

    Kristina F Brezicha•The Good Society•2018

  • Negative News and the Sleeper Effect of Distrust

    Open Access•Jan Kleinnijenhuis, Anita Van Hoof et al.•Harvard International Journal of…•2006

  • Delayed Gratification

    Open Access•Travis J Baker•Political Research Quarterly•2016

  • Political Trust as a Determinant of Volatile Vote Intentions

    Open Access•Remko Voogd, Tom Van Der Meer et al.•International Journal of Public…•2018

  • Building Citizen Trust Through E-government

    Open Access•Michael Parent, Christine A Vandebeek et al.•Government Information Quarterly•2005

  • Political Trust among Chicago Latinos

    Melissa R Michelson•Journal of Urban Affairs•2001

  • Losing to nobody? Nevada's “none of these candidates” ballot reform

    Open Access•Adam R Brown•The Social Science Journal•2011

  • Home run or strikeout

    Open Access•Scott Lasley, Joel Turner•The Social Science Journal•2010

  • Political extremism and distrust

    Open Access•Yordan Kutiyski, André Krouwel et al.•The Social Science Journal•2019

  • The Role of Issues in the 2000 U. S. Presidential Election

    Open Access•Arthur H Miller, Thomas F Klobucar•Presidential Studies Quarterly•2003

  • Who Wins? Campaigns and the Third Party Vote

    Open Access•Samantha Luks, Joanne M Miller et al.•Presidential Studies Quarterly•2003

  • Does representation affect trust in political institutions

    Open Access•Rolly Kukreja•World Development•2024

  • Kick the bums out

    Open Access•Thomas J Johnson, Angela M Lee•Electoral Studies•2015

  • Who is trusted to navigate the storm? Gendered leadership preferences in times of crisis

    Open Access•Lotte Hargrave, Jessica C Smith et al.•Electoral Studies•2026

  • Tsar Putin and the “corruption” thorn in his side

    Open Access•Vicki Hesli Claypool, William M Reisinger et al.•Electoral Studies•2018

  • Economic outlook and the gender gap in attitudes about climate change

    Open Access•Matthew Arbuckle, Makenzie Mercer•Population and Environment•2020

  • A banana republic? The effects of inconsistencies in the counting of votes on voting behavior

    Open Access•Niklas Potrafke, Felix Roesel•Public Choice•2019

  • Sexual orientation, political trust, and same-sex relationship recognition policies

    Open Access•Samuel Mann, Nigel C O’Leary et al.•Public Choice•2022

  • When political expertise moderates the impact of scandals on young adults' judgments of politicians

    Open Access•Isabelle Régner, Valérie Le Floch•European Journal of Social…•2005

  • Gendering Municipal Government

    Open Access•Stacy G Ulbig, S Ulbig•Social Science Quarterly•2007

  • Parties, Institutional Control, and Trust in Government

    Open Access•Joseph Gershtenson, Jeffrey W Ladewig et al.•Social Science Quarterly•2006

  • The Impact of Hurricane Katrina on Trust in Government

    Open Access•Keith Nicholls, Keith W Nicholls et al.•Social Science Quarterly•2013

  • Assessing the Stability of Trust in Government Across Election Periods

    Open Access•Matthew S Dabros, Suzanne L Parker et al.•Social Science Quarterly•2015

  • How Trust Attitudes Promote Grassroots Lobbying in the American States

    Open Access•John Cluverius, Kevin K Banda•Social Science Quarterly•2018

  • Perceived Ideological Distance and Trust in Congress

    Open Access•Justin H Kirkland, Kevin K Banda•Social Science Quarterly•2019

  • Does the Bureaucracy Affect Trust in Government? Evidence from Aggregate Public Opinion

    Open Access•Louis Fucilla•Social Science Quarterly•2021

  • Acculturation Effects on Trust in National and Local Government Among Mexican Americans

    Open Access•James P Wenzel•Social Science Quarterly•2006

  • Do Americans Trust Other Nations? A Panel Study

    Open Access•Paul R Brewer, Sean Aday et al.•Social Science Quarterly•2005

  • The Obama Trigger

    Open Access•Angie Maxwell, T Parent et al.•Social Science Quarterly•2012

  • Testing Mechanisms

    Open Access•Brandon R Davis•Social Science Quarterly•2020

  • The Corrosive Effect of Acculturation

    Open Access•Melissa R Michelson•Social Science Quarterly•2003

  • Impact of Salience on Differential Trust across Political Institutions in the Czech Republic

    Open Access•Pat Lyons•Czech Sociological Review•2013

  • Declining Government Confidence and Policy Preferences in the U.S

    Clem Brooks, S Cheng et al.•Social Forces•2001

  • The Effects of E‐Government on Trust and Confidence in Government

    Open Access•Caroline J Tolbert, Caroline Tolbert et al.•Public Administration Review•2006

  • Voice and Choice in Health Care in England

    Open Access•Keith Dowding, Peter John•Public Administration•2011

  • Why Do People Vote? A Psychological Analysis of the Causes of Voter Turnout

    Open Access•Joshua Harder, Jon A Krosnick•Journal of Social Issues•2008

  • Determinants of public trust in government

    Open Access•Dahai Zhao, Wei Hu•International Review of…•2017

  • Explaining the Rise of the LPF

    Open Access•Éric Bélanger, Kees Aarts•Acta Politica•2006

  • Voice, representation and trust in parliament

    Open Access•Kris Dunn•Acta Politica•2015

  • Dealing with government dysfunction

    Open Access•Gabrielle Pogge, Colin Tucker Smith•Journal of Experimental Social…•2019

  • Organizational Appeals and Civic Voluntarism

    Yanjun Liu, Yiqiu Zhang•Asian Survey•2024

  • Rigged-Election Rhetoric

    Open Access•Kirby Goidel, Keith Gaddie et al.•PS Political Science & Politics•2019

  • The roots of trust in local government in western Europe

    Open Access•Jennifer Fitzgerald, Jennifer Wolak•International Political Science…•2016

  • Confidence in Government and Emotional Responses to Terrorism After September 11, 2001

    Open Access•Kimberly Gro, Paul R Brewer et al.•American Politics Research•2009

  • Assessing the Causes and Effects of Political Trust Among U.S. Latinos

    Open Access•M Abrajano, Marisa A Abrajano et al.•American Politics Research•2010

  • Genetic Variation in Political Participation

    Open Access•J H Fowler, Laura A Baker et al.•American Political Science Review•2008

  • Stable or variable distrust? Disentangling the relationship between political trust and electoral behavior

    Open Access•Carmen Van Alebeek, Tom Van Der Meer et al.•European Political Science Review•2026

  • Does extreme political ideology predict conspiracy beliefs, economic evaluations and political trust? Evidence from Sweden

    Open Access•André Krouwel, Yordan Kutiyski et al.•Journal of Social and Political…•2017

  • The New Videomalaise

    Open Access•Diana C Mutz, Byron Reeves•American Political Science Review•2005

  • Governance and Democracy in Jammu and Kashmir

    Open Access•Aijaz Ashraf Wani, Muzamil Yaqoob•Studies in Indian Politics•2021

  • The Dynamics of Public Confidence in U.S. State and Local Government

    Open Access•Jennifer Wolak, Christine Kelleher Palus•State Politics & Policy Quarterly•2010

  • Do congressional candidates benefit from rejecting PAC contributions? Evidence from a pre-registered candidate evaluation survey experiment

    Open Access•Michelangelo Landgrave, Nicholas R Jenkins et al.•Research & Politics•2025

  • A Tale of Political Trust in American Cities

    Wendy M Rahn•Public Opinion Quarterly•2005

  • The Origins and Consequences of Public Trust in Government

    Virginia A Chanley, Virginia Chanley et al.•Public Opinion Quarterly•2000

  • A leader I can(not) trust

    Open Access•Mariana Von Mohr, Kobi Hackenburg et al.•Politics and the Life Sciences•2024

  • Winners, Losers, and Election Context

    Open Access•Stephen C Craig, Michael D Martinez et al.•Political Research Quarterly•2006

  • Trust in Government in the Aftermath of 9/11

    Open Access•Virginia A Chanley, Virginia Chanley•Political Psychology•2002

  • Exit, Voice, and Loyalty under Municipal Decline

    Shugo Shinohara•Journal of Public Administration…•2018

  • Exploring Factors Affecting Voters’ Participation in a Presidential Campaign

    Jihene Ben Lazreg, Wafa M’sallem•Journal of Political Marketing•2023

  • How can we agree on democratic procedures? Dimensions of conflict in the political process space

    Open Access•Claudia Landwehr•Journal of International…•2025

  • Change and continuity in the 1988 elections

    Paul R Abramson•Change and continuity in the 1988…•1990

  • What Americans know about politics and why it matters

    Michael X Delli Carpini•What Americans know about…•1996

  • The Responsible Electorate

    V O Key, Arthur Maass et al.•Responsible Electorate•1966

  • Common Knowledge

    W Russell Neuman, Marion R Just et al.•Common Knowledge•1992

  • The Reasoning Voter

    Samuel L Popkin•The Reasoning Voter•1991

  • Reasoning and Choice

    Open Access•Paul M Sniderman, Richard A Brody et al.•Reasoning and Choice•1991

  • The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President

    Ray C Fair•The Review of Economics and…•1978

  • Political Attitudes in America

    Open Access•Robert Y Shapiro•Political Science Quarterly•1983

  • Third Parties in America

    Open Access•John R Petrocik•Political Science Quarterly•1985

  • The role of attitude importance in social evaluation

    Jon A Krosnick•Journal of Personality and Social…•1988

  • Short-Term Fluctuations in U.S. Voting Behavior, 1896–1964

    Open Access•Gerald H Kramer•American Political Science Review•1971

  • Political Corruption and Presidential Elections, 1929-1992

    Tim Fackler, Tse-Min Lin•The Journal of Politics•1995

  • The Agenda-Setting Function of Mass Media

    Maxwell E Mccombs, Maxwell Mccombs et al.•Public Opinion Quarterly•1972

  • Economics, Issues and the Perot Candidacy

    R Michael Alvarez, Jonathan Nagler•American Journal of Political…•1995

  • Uninformed Votes

    Larry M Bartels•American Journal of Political…•1996

  • "Truth" Is Stranger than Prediction, More Questionable than Causal Inference

    Gary King•American Journal of Political…•1991

  • Regression in Space and Time

    James A Stimson•American Journal of Political…•1985

  • On the Meaning of Political Trust

    Paul R Abramson, Ada W Finifter•American Journal of Political…•1981

  • Measuring Political Sophistication

    Robert C Luskin•American Journal of Political…•1987

  • The Political Environment and the Dynamics of Public Attitudes

    Gregory B Markus•American Journal of Political…•1979

  • The Impact of Personal and National Economic Conditions on the Presidential Vote

    Gregory B Markus•American Journal of Political…•1988

  • Economic ‘Stagflation’ and Public Support for the Political System

    Open Access•M Stephen Weatherford•British Journal of Political…•1984

  • Presidential Leadership and the Resurgence of Trust in Government

    Open Access•Jack Citrin, Donald P Green•British Journal of Political…•1986

  • Political Parties and Confidence in Government

    Open Access•Arthur H Miller, Ola Listhaug•British Journal of Political…•1990

  • Foreign Affairs and Issue Voting

    Open Access•John H Aldrich, John L Sullivan et al.•American Political Science Review•1989

  • Type-Set Politics

    Open Access•Arthur H Miller, Edie N Goldenberg et al.•American Political Science Review•1979

  • Political Institutions and Satisfaction with Democracy

    Open Access•Christopher J Anderson, Christine A Guillory•American Political Science Review•1997

  • The Political Relevance of Political Trust

    Open Access•Marc J Hetherington•American Political Science Review•1998

  • Ethics and Bigness

    Robert A Nisbet, Robert Nisbet et al.•Review of Religious Research•1963

Unique citing works181
Citations per year6,96
Citation span2000 - 2026 (27)
Citation velocitycurrent
Highly citedYes
Citation typesNeutral: 179

Tools

Open DOISci-Hub
Ethnos_APP • Open Source Project • MIT License • Frontend v2.0.0 • Privacy and Cookies • API Documentation: api.ethnos.app/docs • API Source Code: GitHub • DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17049435 • Frontend Source Code: GitHub • DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17050053 • cruz.rio.br • Expectantes Misericordiae