Assessing Leader Credibility during a Peace Process

Rabin's Private Polls

Bibliographic Data

ID3916429
AuthorsYehudith Auerbach (Bar-Ilan University), Charles W Greenbaum (0000-0002-8072-3676, Hebrew University of Jerusalem)
Year2000
Volume37
Issue1
Pages31-50
Publication date2000-01-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Peace Research (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0022-3433 • E-ISSN: 1460-3578
PublisherSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/0022343300037001002
OpenAlexW2162928923
LanguageEN
Citations received9
References cited11

This article examines the role of public opinion surveys in the making of turning-point decisions (TPDs) that lead to peace between enemies. We present hitherto unpublished data from private polls prepared for Yitzhak Rabin in order to gauge public opinion regarding the Oslo peace process. In analyzing these data we suggest a theoretical model that outlines the role of public opinion in policymaking. The model considers Holsti's (1996) four major parameters within the pre-Oslo framework: the issue facing the decisionmaker; the decisionmaker's beliefs in and sensitivity to public opinion; the political and social context of the decision; and the stage of policymaking. We find support for propositions regarding a paradoxical process characterizing Rabin's policy. Rabin used public opinion polls to gauge the public's support for him as a leader and for taking hawkish decisions, termed credibility-building decisions (CBD). These decisions, though seemingly detrimental to the peace process, were perceived as necessary in order to maintain Rabin's image as a tough-minded leader who would bring peace with the Palestinians without sacrificing security. We suggest that public opinion surveys may be important in monitoring the effects of CBDs on the credibility of a leader whose goal is to move a peace process forward in a time of uncertainty and threat

Context (archaeology) · Credibility · Economics · Law and economics · Opinion poll · Order (exchange) · Political science · Politics · Process (computing) · Public opinion · Public relations · Computer Science · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Jewish and Middle Eastern Studies · Law · Political Conflict and Governance