Post-Conflict Risks

Bibliographic Data

ID3917034
AuthorsPaul Collier (0009-0005-5671-6707, University of Oxford), Anke Hoeffler (0000-0002-0684-6096, University of Oxford, corresponding author), Måns Söderbom (0000-0001-9310-093X, University of Gothenburg)
Year2008
Volume45
Issue4
Pages461-478
Publication date2008-07-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Peace Research (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0022-3433 • E-ISSN: 1460-3578
PublisherSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/0022343308091356
OpenAlexW2155484256
LanguageEN
Citations received180
References cited23

Post-conflict societies face two distinctive challenges: economic recovery and reduction of the risk of a recurring conflict. Aid and policy reforms have been found to be effective in economic recovery. In this article, the authors concentrate on the other challenge - risk reduction. The post-conflict peace is typically fragile: nearly half of all civil wars are due to post-conflict relapses. The authors find that economic development substantially reduces risks, but it takes a long time. They also find evidence that UN peacekeeping expenditures significantly reduce the risk of renewed war. The effect is large: doubling expenditure reduces the risk from 40% to 31%. In contrast to these results, the authors cannot find any systematic influence of elections on the reduction of war risk. Therefore, post-conflict elections should be promoted as intrinsically desirable rather than as mechanisms for increasing the durability of the post-conflict peace. Based on these results, the authors suggest that peace appears to depend upon an external military presence sustaining a gradual economic recovery, with political design playing a somewhat subsidiary role. Since there is a relationship between the severity of post-conflict risks and the level of income at the end of the conflict, this provides a clear and uncontroversial principle for resource allocation: resources per capita should be approximately inversely proportional to the level of income in the post-conflict country

Civil Conflict · Conflict resolution · Conflict resolution research · Development economics · Economics · Environmental health · Peacekeeping · Per capita · Political economy · Political risk · Political science · Politics · Spanish Civil War · International Development and Aid · Law · Medicine · Natural Resources and Economic Development · Peacebuilding and International Security · Public Administration

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