Without an army

How ICC indictments reduce atrocities

Dados Bibliográficos

ID3917600
AutoresAmy Chasteen Miller (0000-0001-5634-9699, United States Naval Academy, autor correspondente)
Ano2023
Volume60
Fascículo4
Páginas573-587
Data de publicação2023-07-01
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoJournal of Peace Research (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 0022-3433 • E-ISSN: 1460-3578
EditoraSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/00223433221088692
OpenAlexW4306682563
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas4
Referências citadas44

Do International Criminal Court (ICC) indictments reduce atrocities? The ICC convicting only ten perpetrators since its founding in 2002 has generated skepticism of the court's ability to prevent attacks against civilians. Drawing on the criminal violence literature, this article applies the concept of assurance to explain how the ICC reduces atrocities despite its limited capacity. As with criminal organizations facing domestic indictments, armed groups affiliated with ICC indictees often (mis)perceive that the indictments come with assurance: that is, inductee-affiliated groups believe that they can alleviate the costs imposed by indictments if they refrain from further attacks. I test the effect of ICC indictments on violence using the weighted regression method generalized synthetic control to mitigate empirical challenges posed by endogeneity and data unreliability. The results indicate that indictments lead to a substantial initial decline in attacks against civilians by armed groups affiliated with indictees, but the attacks return to pre-indictment levels when indictees face sustained punishment from the court. Descriptive cases of ICC indictments against alleged perpetrators in Uganda and Kenya are used to illustrate the role of assurance. These findings imply that the ICC might reduce violence by engaging in plea bargains and other negotiated settlements - tools commonly employed by domestic prosecutors fighting criminal organizations

Criminology · Environmental health · Indictment · Plea · Poison control · Political science · Punishment (psychology) · Crime, Illicit Activities, and Governance · Law · Medicine · Political Conflict and Governance · Psychology · Social Psychology · Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence