A difficult test for hard propaganda

Evidence from a choice experiment in Venezuela

Bibliographic Data

ID3917692
AuthorsPhilipp M Lutscher (0000-0001-6176-7297, University of Oslo, corresponding author), Karsten Donnay (0000-0002-9080-6539, University of Zurich)
Year2025
Volume62
Issue2
Pages462-478
Publication date2025-03-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Peace Research (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0022-3433 • E-ISSN: 1460-3578
PublisherSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/00223433231220269
OpenAlexW4391967975
LanguageEN
Citations received7
References cited53

Propaganda plays a key role in maintaining power in authoritarian regimes. Previous research finds that overt, crude, and heavy-handed messaging, so-called hard propaganda, can be used to effectively convey government strength and deter citizens from joining anti-regime protests in relatively stable autocratic regimes like China. Yet, it is unclear if this is also true in more contested and unstable autocratic contexts. In these settings, citizens are more likely to question such messaging and prior beliefs of government strength vary more widely. We explore the perception of hard propaganda in one such difficult test case for hard propaganda: the crisis-ridden Maduro regime in Venezuela. We measure perceptions of hard propaganda among the public using an online survey that featured a choice experiment in which respondents chose between and rated different propaganda images against more neutral political communication. Our results show that respondents perceived hard propaganda images as stronger compared to neutral political communication. This holds true - contrary to our pre-registered expectations - regardless of whether respondents overall perceived the government as strong or weak. Moreover, respondents reported a lower willingness to join anti-government protests but, at the same time, had a greater motivation to challenge the regime. These results support and extend prior findings on the effectiveness of hard propaganda in deterring anti-regime activities to the case of contested and unstable autocracies. But they also suggest that this kind of messaging erodes regime legitimacy providing the first evidence outside of the Chinese case of the pathology of hard propaganda

Authoritarianism · Autocracy · China · Communication source · Democracy · Government (linguistics) · Legitimacy · Perception · Political science · Politics · Public opinion · Public relations · Test (biology) · Engineering · Hate Speech and Cyberbullying Detection · Law · Media Influence and Politics · Psychology · Social Media and Politics · Social Psychology