Climate change, rainfall, and social conflict in Africa

Bibliographic Data

ID3918227
AuthorsCullen S Hendrix (Department of Government, College of William & Mary), Cullen Hendrix (0000-0002-6193-5155, William & Mary), Idean Salehyan (0000-0002-7175-4796, University of North Texas)
Year2012
Volume49
Issue1
Pages35-50
Publication date2012-01-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Peace Research (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0022-3433 • E-ISSN: 1460-3578
PublisherSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/0022343311426165
OpenAlexW2115231242
LanguageEN
Citations received207
References cited72

Much of the debate over the security implications of climate change revolves around whether changing weather patterns will lead to future conflict. This article addresses whether deviations from normal rainfall patterns affect the propensity for individuals and groups to engage in disruptive activities such as demonstrations, riots, strikes, communal conflict, and anti-government violence. In contrast to much of the environmental security literature, it uses a much broader definition of conflict that includes, but is not limited to, organized rebellion. Using a new database of over 6,000 instances of social conflict over 20 years - the Social Conflict in Africa Database (SCAD) - it examines the effect of deviations from normal rainfall patterns on various types of conflict. The results indicate that rainfall variability has a significant effect on both large-scale and smaller-scale instances of political conflict. Rainfall correlates with civil war and insurgency, although wetter years are more likely to suffer from violent events. Extreme deviations in rainfall - particularly dry and wet years - are associated positively with all types of political conflict, though the relationship is strongest with respect to violent events, which are more responsive to abundant than scarce rainfall. By looking at a broader spectrum of social conflict, rather than limiting the analysis to civil war, we demonstrate a robust relationship between environmental shocks and unrest

Civil Conflict · Climate change · Conflict resolution · Conflict resolution research · Development economics · Economics · Ethnic conflict · Geography · Government (linguistics) · Insurgency · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Scale (ratio) · Social conflict · Sociology · Spanish Civil War · Unrest · Ecology · Health and Conflict Studies · Rangeland Management and Livestock Ecology · Transboundary Water Resource Management