Persistent Patterns of International Commerce
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 3918264 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Michael D Ward (0000-0002-6561-6186, Department of Political Science, University of Washington, corresponding author), Peter D Hoff (0000-0001-8041-0322, Departments of Statistics and Biostatistics, University of Washington) |
| Year | 2007 |
| Volume | 44 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 157-175 |
| Publication date | 2007-03-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Peace Research (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-3433 • E-ISSN: 1460-3578 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022343307075119 |
| OpenAlex | W2098117397 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 37 |
| References cited | 52 |
The authors examine a standard gravity model of international commerce augmented to include political as well as institutional influences on bilateral trade. Using annual data from 1980-2001, they estimate regression coefficients and residual dependencies using a hierarchy of models in each year. Rather than gauge the generalizability of these patterns via traditional measures of statistical significance such as p-values, this article develops and employs a strategy to evaluate the out-of-sample predictive strength of various models. The analysis of recent international commerce shows that in addition to a typical gravity-model specification, political and institutional variables are important. The article also demonstrates that the often-reported link between international conflict and bilateral trade is elusive, and that inclusion of conflict in a trade model can sometimes lead to reduced out-of-sample predictive performance. Further, this article illustrates that there are substantial, persistent residual exporter- and importer-specific effects, and that ignoring such patterns in relational trade data results in an incomplete picture of international commerce, even in the context of a well-established framework such as the gravity model
Bilateral trade · Context (archaeology) · Econometrics · Economics · Generalizability theory · Geography · Gravity model of trade · Hierarchy · International trade · Machine learning · Political science · Politics · Regression analysis · Residual · Sample (material) · Statistics · Computer Science · Global Trade and Competitiveness · Global trade and economics · International Business and FDI · Mathematics
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| Unique citing works | 37 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 2,06 |
| Citation span | 2008 - 2024 (17) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 36 |