The Probability of Nuclear War
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 3918588 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Rudolf Avenhaus (Universität der Bundeswehr München), John Fichtner (Siemens, München), Steven J Bram (0000-0003-3650-0392, New York University), Steven J Brams (New York University), D Marc Kilgour (0000-0001-8810-8937, Wilfrid Laurier University) |
| Year | 1989 |
| Volume | 26 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 91-99 |
| Publication date | 1989-02-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Peace Research (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-3433 • E-ISSN: 1460-3578 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022343389026001009 |
| OpenAlex | W2012481299 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 5 |
| References cited | 7 |
A theoretical analysis of the probability of nuclear war is developed that assumes a starting probability and an annual reduction factor. Whatever the starting probability is, a constant reduction factor leads to an eventual probability that is less than 1, whereas the eventual probability goes to 1 if there is no reduction or if the reduction proportion decreases at a constant rate. Numerical calculations and graphical results illustrate trade-offs between the starting probabilities and the reduction factors, demonstrating especially the significance of the latter. In addition, upper and lower limits for, and approximations of, the eventual probabilities - along with measures of the rate of convergence - are derived. The applicability of the analysis to lowering the probability of nuclear war is discussed, with particular attention paid to real-life factors that seem to affect this probability
Bayesian probability · Constant (computer programming) · Econometrics · Empirical probability · Geometry · Law of total probability · Posterior probability · Probability distribution · Probability model · Reduction (mathematics) · Statistics · Applied Mathematics · Computer Science · Global Energy and Sustainability Research · Mathematics · Nuclear Issues and Defense
| Unique citing works | 5 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,26 |
| Citation span | 2007 - 2026 (20) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 4 |