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The Research Productivity of New PhDs in Economics

The Surprisingly High Non-Success of the Successful

Bibliographic Data

ID4029155
AuthorsJohn P Conley (0000-0003-3675-8529, Professor of Economics, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee.), Ali Sina Önder (0000-0002-6646-409X, Lecturer, University of Bayreuth, Bayreuth, Germany and an Affiliated Researcher, Uppsala Center for Fiscal Studies, Uppsala, Sweden. .)
Year2014
Volume28
Issue3
Pages205-216
Publication date2014-08-01
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueThe Journal of Economic Perspectives (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0895-3309 • E-ISSN: 1944-7965
PublisherAmerican Economic Association (PUBLISHER • US)
DOI10.1257/jep.28.3.205
OpenAlexW1977369817
LanguageEN
Citations received14
References cited6

We study the research productivity of new graduates from North American PhD programs in economics from 1986 to 2000. We find that research productivity drops off very quickly with class rank at all departments, and that the rank of the graduate departments themselves provides a surprisingly poor prediction of future research success. For example, at the top ten departments as a group, the median graduate has fewer than 0.03 American Economic Review (AER)-equivalent publications at year six after graduation, an untenurable record almost anywhere. We also find that PhD graduates of equal percentile rank from certain lower-ranked departments have stronger publication records than their counterparts at higher-ranked departments. In our data, for example, Carnegie Mellon's graduates at the 85th percentile of year-six research productivity outperform 85th percentile graduates of the University of Chicago, the University of Pennsylvania, Stanford, and Berkeley. These results suggest that even the top departments are not doing a very good job of training the great majority of their students to be successful research economists. Hiring committees may find these results helpful when trying to balance class rank and place of graduate in evaluating job candidates, and current graduate students may wish to re-evaluate their academic strategies in light of these findings

Demographic economics · Economic growth · Economics · Graduate students · Medical education · Percentile · Percentile rank · Political science · Productivity · Statistics · Computer Science · Engineering · Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies · Game Theory and Applications · Mathematics · Medicine · Psychology · Sports Analytics and Performance

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Citations per year1.4
Citation span2016 - 2025 (10)
Highly citedNo

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