How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 4029237 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Jeff Dominitz (Carnegie Mellon University), Charles F Manski (0000-0001-7260-7686, Northwestern University) |
| Year | 2004 |
| Volume | 18 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 51-66 |
| Publication date | 2004-05-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | The Journal of Economic Perspectives (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0895-3309 • E-ISSN: 1944-7965 |
| Publisher | American Economic Association (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1257/0895330041371303 |
| OpenAlex | W1966002742 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 14 |
| References cited | 10 |
Research on consumer confidence has mainly sought to evaluate the power of available data to predict economic outcomes. In contrast, this article considers how best to measure consumer confidence. We analyze the responses to eight questions that have appeared recently on the Michigan Survey of Consumers; four elicit expectations in the traditional qualitative manner and four use a newer "percent chance" format. Examination of the responses suggests three implications. It makes more sense to ask for expectations of events directly relevant to individual economic decisions than for predictions of general business conditions. Surveys should shift away from qualitative questions in favor of ones eliciting subjective probability judgments. While aggregating responses into an index of consumer confidence may provide simple summary statistics, results should also be presented on a question-byquestion basis for different subgroups of the population
Actuarial science · Ask price · Business · Confidence interval · Consumer confidence index · Data mining · Econometrics · Economics · Population · Sociology · Statistics · Computer Science · Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics · Demography · Mathematics · Psychology · Marketing
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Evaluation of the Subjective Probabilities of Survival in the Health and Retirement Study
Federal Reserve Board Committee Reports on Consumer Expectations and Savings Statistics
On the Predictive Value of Consumer Intentions and Attitudes
The Predictive Validity of Subjective Probabilities of Survival
The Consumer as Forecaster
Teen Expectations for Significant Life Events
Perceptions of Economic Insecurity
| Unique citing works | 14 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,64 |
| Citation span | 2004 - 2025 (22) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 14 |