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An Economist's Guide to Epidemiology Models of Infectious Disease

Bibliographic Data

ID4030128
AuthorsChristopher Avery (0000-0002-0297-2685, Christopher Avery is Roy E. Larsen Professor of Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy School, Cambridge, Massachusetts.), William H Bossert (Arnold Ventures), William Bossert (William Bossert is David B. Arnold, Jr., Professor of Science, Emeritus, Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Cambridge, Massachusetts.), Adam Clark (0000-0003-0779-853X, Adam Clark is Assistant Professor, Institute of Biology, University of Graz, Graz, Austria.), Glenn Ellison (0000-0003-3164-0855, Glenn Ellison is Gregory K. Palm Professor of Economics, Cambridge, Massachusetts.), Sara Fisher Ellison (Sara Fisher Ellison is Senior Lecturer in Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts.)
Year2020
Volume34
Issue4
Pages79-104
Publication date2020-11-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueThe Journal of Economic Perspectives (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0895-3309 • E-ISSN: 1944-7965
PublisherAmerican Economic Association (PUBLISHER • US)
DOI10.1257/jep.34.4.79
OpenAlexW3097127852
LanguageEN
Citations received11
References cited9

We describe the structure and use of epidemiology models of disease transmission, with an emphasis on the susceptible/infected/recovered (SIR) model. We discuss high-profile forecasts of cases and deaths that have been based on these models, what went wrong with the early forecasts, and how they have adapted to the current COVID pandemic. We also offer three distinct areas where economists would be well positioned to contribute to or inform this epidemiology literature: modeling heterogeneity of susceptible populations in various dimensions, accommodating endogeneity of the parameters governing disease spread, and helping to understand the importance of political economy issues in disease suppression

Disease · Disease transmission · Econometrics · Economic model · Economics · Endogeneity · Environmental health · Epidemic model · Macroeconomics · Pandemic · Population · Agricultural risk and resilience · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts · Medicine · Epidemiology · Virology

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  • A study of Sars-COV-2 outbreaks in US federal prisons

    Open Access•Sherry Towers, D Wallace et al.•BMC Public Health•2022

  • A novel risk communication model for online public opinion dissemination that integrates the SIR and Markov chains

    Open Access•Qian Zhou, Jianping Li et al.•Risk Analysis•2025

  • Moral Force

    Open Access•Federico Niccoló Daverio Occhini, María Montoya-Aguirre et al.•SSRN Electronic Journal•2020

  • Behavioral Economics in the Epidemiology of the Covid-19 Pandemic

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  • Intergenerational coresidence and the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States

    Open Access•Luca Pensieroso, Alessandro Sommacal et al.•Economics & Human Biology•2023

  • Strategic ignorance, and the management of performative effects

    Open Access•Lukas Beck, Henrik Thorén•Studies in History and Philosophy…•2026

  • Accounting for cultural spread with an economic SIR model

    Open Access•Louise Gauthier•Quality & Quantity•2025

  • Optimal Vaccine Subsidies for Epidemic Diseases

    Matthew Goodkin-Gold, Michael Kremer et al.•The Review of Economics and…•2024

  • Managing Performative Models

    Open Access•Donal Khosrowi•Philosophy of the Social Sciences•2023

  • Performativity in Science

    Open Access•Philippe Van Basshuysen•Philosophy Compass•2025

  • The Relation between Media Consumption and Misinformation at the Outset of the Sars-CoV-2 Pandemic in the US

    Open Access•Kathleen Hall Jamieson, Dolores Albarracin•Harvard Kennedy School…•2020

  • Projecting the transmission dynamics of Sars-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period

    Open Access•Stephen M Kissler, Christine Tedijanto et al.•Science•2020

  • The Mathematics of Infectious Diseases

    Herbert W Hethcote•SIAM Review•2000

  • The effect of control strategies to reduce social mixing on outcomes of the Covid-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China

    Open Access•Kiesha Prem, Yang Liu et al.•The Lancet Public Health•2020

  • Risk Perception Through the Lens of Politics in the Time of the Covid-19 Pandemic

    John Barrios, John Manuel Barrios et al.•National Bureau of Economic…•2020

  • Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic

    Open Access•Neil M Ferguson, Derek A T Cummings et al.•Nature•2006

  • Quantifying Sars-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing

    Open Access•Luca Ferretti, Chris Wymant et al.•Science•2020

  • A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics

    Open Access•William Ogilvy Kermack, A G McKendrick•Proceedings of the Royal Society…•1927

Unique citing works11
Citations per year1,83
Citation span2020 - 2026 (7)
Citation velocitycurrent
Highly citedNo
Citation typesNeutral: 10

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