Deterrence and Subjective Probabilities of Arrest

Modeling Individual Decisions to Drink and Drive in Sweden

Bibliographic Data

ID4085159
AuthorsPerry Shapiro, Harold L Votey
Year1984
Volume18
Issue4
Pages583-604
Publication date1984-01-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueLaw & Society Review (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0023-9216 • E-ISSN: 1540-5893
PublisherCambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.2307/3053448
OpenAlexW1996100421
LanguageEN
Citations received6
References cited4

Illegal behavior responding to subjective probabilities of arrest and consequent costs is modeled within a framework of individual choice under uncertainty. The model is formulated for the case of driving while intoxicated and tested with data that include all arrests for drunken driving in Sweden from 1976-1979. Results indicate that an arrest experience reduces the probability that a person will drive while drunk. The results suggest that an arrest increases a person's perceived probability of arrest and/or the unpleasantness of an arrest and thus leads to a reduced chance of acting illegally

Business · Criminology · Deterrence (psychology · Deterrence theory · Economics · Political science · Crime Patterns and Interventions · Crime, Illicit Activities, and Governance · Law · Psychology · Traffic and Road Safety