Evaluation, Diagnosis, and Prediction in Parole Decision Making

Bibliographic Data

ID4085622
AuthorsJohn S Carroll (Loyola University Chicago), Richard L Wiener, Dan Coates, Jolene Galegher, James J Alibrio
Year1982
Volume17
Issue1
Pages199-228
Publication date1982-01-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueLaw & Society Review (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0023-9216 • E-ISSN: 1540-5893
PublisherCambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.2307/3053536
OpenAlexW2330618527
LanguageEN
Citations received44
References cited10

Discretionary legal decisions have become a recent focus of theory development and policy-oriented applied research. We investigated parole release decision making in Pennsylvania from both orientations. Analyses of post-hearing questionnaires and case files from 1,035 actual parole decisions revealed that the Parole Board considers institutional behavior and predictions of future risk and rehabilitation in the decision to release on parole. Predictions seem also to be based on diagnostic judgments identifying causes of crime such as personal dispositions, drugs, alcohol, money, and environment. A one-year follow-up of 838 released parolees showed that predictions were virtually unrelated to known post-release outcomes. An actuarial prediction device was developed that is more predictive than subjective judgments. The use of decision guidelines to structure discretion is discussed, as well as the utilization of our research in guideline development by Pennsylvania

Criminology · Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference · Behavioral and Psychological Studies · Child and Animal Learning Development · Computer Science · Psychology

Tools

Open DOISci-Hub