Better the Devil You Know? How Fringe Terrorism Can Induce an Advantage for Moderate Nonviolent Campaigns

Bibliographic Data

ID4086809
AuthorsMargherita Belgioioso (0000-0002-1825-0257, Politics and History, Brunel University, London, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, corresponding author), Stefano Costalli (0000-0002-8657-2047, University of Florence), Kristian Skrede Gleditsch (0000-0003-4149-3211, University of Essex)
Year2021
Volume33
Issue3
Pages596-615
Publication date2021-04-03
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueTerrorism and Political Violence (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0954-6553 • E-ISSN: 1556-1836
PublisherInforma UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1080/09546553.2018.1559836
OpenAlexW2921521294
LanguageEN
Citations received10

Fringe terrorism is common during nonviolent campaigns. We examine how this can modify the strategic environment between dissident groups and the state in ways that present both challenges and opportunities to moderate factions. Terrorism is intended to promote violent escalation in a conflict, but we argue that fringe terrorist activities in a nonviolent campaign under certain conditions can induce an advantage for well-organized moderate factions. The risk of escalation following terrorism can give the government more incentives to offer concessions to moderate campaign leaders if the movement can credibly prevent armed escalation. The ability to control and prevent violence is more likely when nonviolent movements have a hierarchical structure and a centralized leadership, as such campaigns are better able to prevent shifts by supporters towards violent fringes. Using new data on terrorist attacks by factions sharing the same overall objectives as ongoing nonviolent campaigns, we show that nonviolent campaigns are more likely to see substantial gains in spite of fringe terrorist activities when a movement has a hierarchical structure and a centralized leadership

Criminology · Economics · Incentive · Management · Political economy · Political science · Public relations · Sociology · Terrorism · Computer Science · Economic Sanctions and International Relations · Law · Political Conflict and Governance · Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence

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