The Global Law of Terror Organization Lifespan
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 4087181 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Shlomo Ogen Goldman (0000-0002-4592-6443, Ariel University, corresponding author), Leah Bar (Tel Aviv University) |
| Year | 2020 |
| Volume | 32 |
| Issue | 8 |
| Pages | 1636-1665 |
| Publication date | 2020-11-16 |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Terrorism and Political Violence (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0954-6553 • E-ISSN: 1556-1836 |
| Publisher | Informa UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/09546553.2018.1498787 |
| OpenAlex | W2887116354 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 2 |
The study addresses the question of whether there is a global pattern of terror organization (TO) lifespan. Based on two datasets which include hundreds of organizations, we show that there is a global statistical law of TO lifespan distribution. This distribution describes populations of TOs in different contexts of periods, geographical locations, ideologies, etc. The data as a whole, as well as its subpopulations, seem to emerge from an exponential distribution, which is formulated as a mathematical model. This model enables the prediction of TOs’ global population decay rate. The findings were obtained by introducing a novel procedure, which formulates and validates this mathematical law for discrete empirical data. We suggest that human behavior generating informational cascades and a positive feedback loop, which influence the number of core members in a TO, may be the source of this global pattern
Econometrics · Exponential distribution · Exponential function · Ideology · Political science · Population · Sociology · Statistics · Computer Science · Law · Mathematics · Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence
| Citations per year | 0.67 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2023 - 2024 (2) |
| Highly cited | No |