On Underestimating the Rate of Social Change
A Cautionary Note
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 4119868 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Ronald Freedman (corresponding author) |
| Year | 1986 |
| Volume | 12 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 529 |
| Publication date | 1986-09-01 |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Population and Development Review (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0098-7921 • E-ISSN: 1728-4457 |
| Publisher | JSTOR (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.2307/1973222 |
| OpenAlex | W2071846140 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 7 |
The author illustrates how social scientists including demographers often underestimate the rate at which social change can occur with an example from his own article Policy Options After the Demographic Transition: The Case of (March 1986). The article began with a set of plausible projections of Taiwans population with the assumption that the total fertility rate (TFR) which reached replacement level of 2.1 by 1983 would fall to a low of about 1.9 by 1991 and remain stable. Now with 27 months of additional fertility data it is clear that fertility is falling much faster than the author had assumed. Between 1983 and 1984 the TFR fell by 5% to 2.05; it seems likely that the TFR fell to 1.84 by mid-1985 and will fall below 1.75 in 1986. Trends and errors need not be linear. Taiwan will have to deal with the consequences of the aging of its population as its net reproduction rate falls below 1. More rapid fertility declines mean that aging would occur more quickly and conceivably the proportions at older ages may reach higher levels and actual negative growth may be reached sooner. The implication is that the issues of health and social security associated with aging need to be faced sooner. Perhaps more troubling is whether these trends undercut the authors theoretical position that the persistence of Chinese traditional familial values and practice is compatible with low fertility and will moderate the pace of further fertility decline and prevent fertility from falling to very low levels
Economics · Geography · Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences · Global Health Care Issues · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
The Emerging Demographic Transitions of Southeast Asia
An assessment of China’s fertility level using the variable- r method
China’s far below replacement fertility and its long-term impact
Socioeconomic Factors Have Been the Major Driving Force of China’s Fertility Changes Since the Mid-1990s
Fertility decline in Taiwan
Closing a Sociodemographic Chapter of Chinese History
Reexamining China's Fertility Puzzle
| Citations per year | 0.19 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 1990 - 2018 (29) |
| Highly cited | No |