The Impact of Urbanization and Delayed Childbearing on Population Growth and Aging in China
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 4120590 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Y Zeng (0000-0001-8354-2945), Zeng Yi, James W Vaupel (0000-0003-0783-3905) |
| Year | 1989 |
| Volume | 15 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 425 |
| Publication date | 1989-09-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Population and Development Review (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0098-7921 • E-ISSN: 1728-4457 |
| Publisher | JSTOR (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.2307/1972441 |
| OpenAlex | W2072918328 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 41 |
| References cited | 9 |
Urbanization and delayed childbearing in China are likely to reduce future national birth rates and significantly slow population growth for 2 reasons. First urban residents are apt to continue to have substantially lower fertility rates than rural residents. In addition urbanites tend to give birth at older ages and may be more receptive to government efforts to further delay childbearing. These relationships are examined using a multi-regional population projection model that incorporates 3 scenarios regarding rural-to-urban migration and cohort mean age of childbearing based on data from the 1987 One Percent Population Survey. The results show that rapid urbanization accompanied by a gradual increase in the mean age of childbearing may avert about 300 million births over the period 1987 to 2050. In addition to affecting total population size which may be about 260 million persons smaller in 2050 than would be the case in the absence of urbanization and delayed childbearing this reduction in number of births may increase the proportion of the population that is elderly. In particular the projections suggest that more than 1/4 of the remaining rural population in 2050 may be aged 65 or older. (Authors modified)
China · Development economics · Economic growth · Economics · Environmental health · Geography · Population · Population ageing · Population growth · Urbanization · Birth, Development, and Health · Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences · Family Dynamics and Relationships · Medicine
Far Below Replacement Fertility in Urban China
China’s Population Policy at the Crossroads
Association of Divorce with Socio-Demographic Covariates in China, 1955-1985
Family Dynamics of 63 Million (in 1990) to More Than 330 Million (in 2050) Elders in China
Oldest Old Mortality in China
Fertility of rural China. Effects of local family planning and health programs
Measuring population pressure on the landscape
A Demographic Decomposition of the Recent Increase in Crude Birth Rates in China
Household Projection Using Conventional Demographic Data
Determinants of Induced Abortion and their Policy Implications in Four Countries in North China
Unequally ageing regions of Europe
L'enquete sur la longevite en bonne sante
The Healthy Longevity Survey and the Active Life Expectancy of the Oldest Old in China
Functional Capacity and Self–Evaluation of Health and Life of Oldest Old in China
The effects of China's universal two-child policy
Urbanisation and health in China
The Double Burden
The transition to adulthood in China, Germany and the US
Urban sustainability and human health in China, East Asia and Southeast Asia
The effects of ageing and urbanisation on China’s future rural and urban populations
China's greenhouse gas emissions
Production scenarios and the effect of soil degradation on long-term food security in China
China’s family planning policies and their labor market consequences
Who will care for the elderly in China
Human Society as a Natural Phenomenon
The effects of age structure on the labor force and retirement in China
Unsanctioned Births in China
Population tradeoffs in China
Measuring urban shrinkage in India using night-light data from DMSP-OLS and Viirs-NPP satellite sensors
Rising housing prices and marriage delays in China
Internal consistency of demographic assumptions in the shared socioeconomic pathways
How urbanization shapes rural ageing in China? Evidence from spatial Durbin and threshold regression models
Age of Retirement and Human Capital in an Aging China, 2015–2050
The Effect of Urbanization on China’s Fertility
Fertility Behaviors of Rural-to-Urban Migrants in China
Sterilization and Financial Penalties Imposed on Registered Peasant Couples, Hebei Province, China
Modelling Urban-Rural Population Growth in China
Migrations in the Urban-Rural Hierarchy of China
Sociodemographic and Health Profiles of the Oldest Old In China
Effects of Demographic and Retirement-Age Policies on Future Pension Deficits, with an Application to China
Options for Fertility Policy Transition in China
Rapid population change in China, 1952-1982
China's population policy
Passage to Methuselah
Introduction of Multiregional Mathematical Demography
Migration and Settlement
Changing Demographic Characteristics and the Family Status of Chinese Women
An Alternative to the One-Child Policy in China
Changes in Family Structure in China
Marriage and Fertility in China
| Unique citing works | 41 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1,17 |
| Citation span | 1991 - 2025 (35) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 27 |