Nuclear War and Demographers' Projections

The author considers the demographic implications of both large-scale and limited nuclear While emphasizing that the effects of large-scale war are largely conjectural he suggests that best one can imagine a temporary post-war reduction of expectation of life at birth from the present 70 years or more in industrialized countries to 40 or 50 years among survivors. In a theoretical sense the sufficiently prolonged continuation of a low probability of an event makes the event inevitable. While demographers can hardly incorporate the potential effects of a hypothetical war explicitly in their projections they should note that standard projections are conditional on the continued absence of nuclear warfare. (summary in FRE SPA) (EXCERPT)

Political science · Health and Conflict Studies · Nuclear Issues and Defense

• The Next 50 Years

  Open Access•Vaclav Smil•Population and Development Review•2005

  Add to list