Contextualizing the Global Burden of Covid-19 Pandemic
A Historical and Geographical Exploration of Excess Mortality in France, 1901-2021
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 4122266 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Florian Bonnet (0000-0001-6125-3317), Carlo Giovanni Camarda (0000-0003-0191-4093) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Volume | 51 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 1114-1140 |
| Publication date | 2025-09-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Population and Development Review (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0098-7921 • E-ISSN: 1728-4457 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1111/padr.70007 |
| OpenAlex | W4409277825 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 60 |
In light of the unprecedented global impact of COVID-19, comparing its demographic and spatial dimensions with past longevity crises is crucial for identifying core drivers and providing guidance for tailored health policies. This study offers the first analysis of this type, placing the recent pandemic in a historical and geographical context spanning the past 120 years and comparing its impact in 90 French regions with that of the 1911 and 2003 heatwaves and the Spanish and Hong Kong flu. Using a robust statistical model, we computed a standard excess mortality measure enabling comparison across both space and time and with the estimated effects of COVID-19 in European regions. Our results reveal that the COVID-19 burden was, on average, 90 percent lower than the Spanish Flu and 75 percent lower than the 1911 heatwave, but four times higher than the 2003 heatwave. We also reveal that the heterogeneity of the COVID-19 burden across French regions is high compared to the Spanish and the Hong Kong flu but in line with the 2003 heatwave. COVID-19's substantial spatial heterogeneity and clear spatial clusters could be the result of stringent containment measures that prevented the pandemic from spreading across the French territory, contrary to past pandemics
2019-20 coronavirus outbreak · Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19 · Development economics · Disease · Economics · Environmental health · Excess mortality · Geography · Outbreak · Pandemic · Population · Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2 · Sociology · Climate Change and Health Impacts · Demography · Global Health Care Issues · Healthcare Systems and Reforms · Internal Medicine · Medicine · Virology
Excess mortality
Excess deaths associated with covid-19 pandemic in 2020
The 2003 Heat Wave in France
Disability weights for the Global Burden of Disease 2013 study
Disability-adjusted life years (Dalys) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990–2010
Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003
The WHO estimates of excess mortality associated with the Covid-19 pandemic
Tracking excess mortality across countries during the Covid-19 pandemic with the World Mortality Dataset
Influenza
A poorly understood disease? The impact of Covid-19 on the income gradient in mortality over the course of the pandemic
Has all that has been done lately for infants failed?” 1911, Infant Mortality and Infant Welfare in Early Twentieth-Century Germany
La canicule de 1911. Observations démographiques et médicales et réactions politiques
Heat Waves and Cold Spells and their Effect on Mortality
Un été exceptionnel en Belgique
What should be the baseline when calculating excess mortality? New approaches suggest that we have underestimated the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and previous winter peaks
Updating the Accounts
Out-of-Hospital Covid-19 Deaths
Local Indicators of Spatial Association—Lisa
Life expectancy changes since Covid-19
The mortality impact of the August 2003 heat wave in France
Sensitivity Analysis of Excess Mortality due to the Covid-19 Pandemic
Influenza mortality in French regions after the Hong Kong flu pandemic
Computations of French lifetables by department, 1901-2014
Smooth constrained mortality forecasting
| Highly cited | No |
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