Some Thoughts on the Evidence of Fertility Decline in Eastern and Southern Africa

Bibliographic Data

ID4122368
AuthorsJohn Blacker, A John Blacker (0000-0003-4898-2712, corresponding author), National Research Council
Year1994
Volume20
Issue1
Pages200
Publication date1994-03-01
Open AccessNo
TypeARTICLE
VenuePopulation and Development Review (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0098-7921 • E-ISSN: 1728-4457
PublisherJSTOR (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.2307/2137639
OpenAlexW2263087339
LanguageEN
Citations received10

Fertility decline is occurring in East and Southern Africa. A US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) report on population dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa concludes that Kenya Zimbabwe and Botswana experienced dramatic declines in fertility and Nigeria and Senegal show beginning signs of decline. South Africa was not included but previous studies indicate that South Africa preceded other African countries in fertility decline. The evidence of decline is based on censuses and surveys which are well known for sampling bias and reporting errors. Figures should never be taken at face value. For example in Swaziland the 1988 Family Health Survey showed a fertility rate of 5.0 and a 1986 census revealed a rate of 5.1. Detailed examination of census results indicated serious problems with underreporting of births which with corrections yielded a fertility rate of 6.6. Decline from 7.0 in 1976 was evident but the extent of the decline was uncertain. Sample surveys may be just as unreliable because sampling clusters may exclude newly-formed households as occurred in Kenya when the 1989 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) used 1984 sampling frames. Pregnancy histories reflect lower average parities and lower proportions of dead children. Child mortality appears to be underreported in Kenya Zimbabwe and Botswana all countries which show declining fertility. Clustering over the age of five years may be occurring due to the heavy investment in time required to complete the DHS questionnaire for any children aged five years and under. Contraceptive usage data have substantiated other survey data but these surveys may also be subject to underreporting. The NAS detailed study of Kenya by Brass unequivocally points to decline but a simple comparison of contraceptive use results with DHS results shows discrepancies. Proof of decline may be revealed by the 1989 census

Development economics · Economics · Fertility · Geography · Political science · Population · Socioeconomics · Sociology · Child Nutrition and Water Access · Demography · Global Maternal and Child Health · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management

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