A three parameter model for birth projections
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 4268408 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Anatole Romaniuk (corresponding author) |
| Year | 1973 |
| Volume | 27 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 467-478 |
| Publication date | 1973-11-01 |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Population Studies (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0032-4728 • E-ISSN: 1477-4747 |
| Publisher | Informa UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/00324728.1973.10405494 |
| PMID | 22091767 |
| OpenAlex | W2064653000 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 6 |
| References cited | 9 |
The approach underlying the model proposed in this article constitutes a considerable departure from the conventional methods used for the projection of birth series. Instead of following the customary procedure of directly projecting the age-specific fertility rates, they can be derived with this model from only three relatively simple fertility measures, namely, total fertility rate, mean age of fertility, and modal age of fertility. The reduction of the number of fertility parameters offers appreciable operational and analytical advantages. Among these, the most significant is the fact that statistical manipulation is confined to only three fertility measures, all of which are particularly appropriate for the in-depth analysis which is required to provide a rationale for assumptions of future fertility
Algorithm · Birth rate · Econometrics · Family planning · Fertility · Human fertility · Population · Projection (relational algebra) · Research methodology · Sociology · Statistics · Total fertility rate · Assisted Reproductive Technology and Twin Pregnancy · Computer Science · demographic modeling and climate adaptation · Demography · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management · Mathematics
The Trend of Expected Parity in the United States
The Prediction of Completed Fertility
The Pattern of Age-Specific fertility rates
The process of demographic translation
A Gompertz fit that fits
Some aspects of the use of birth expectations data from sample surveys for population projections
Cohort fertility versus parity progression as methods of projecting births
| Citations per year | 0.12 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 1976 - 2011 (36) |
| Highly cited | No |