Mapping of aridity and its connections with climate classes and climate desertification in future scenarios - Brazilian semi-arid region

Bibliographic Data

ID4331428
AuthorsLarissa Amanda Pereira Da Silva (0000-0001-5504-9029, Universidade Federal de Uberlândia), Claudionor Ribeiro Da Silva (0000-0003-4542-0933, Universidade Federal de Uberlândia), Cristiano Marcelo Pereira De Souza (0000-0001-7692-1613, Universidade Estadual de Montes Claros), Édson Luís Bolfe (0000-0001-7777-2445, Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation), João Paulo Sena Souza (0000-0003-4536-8784, Universidade Estadual de Montes Claros), Marcos Esdras Leite (0000-0002-9020-6445, Universidade Estadual de Montes Claros)
Year2023
Publication date2023-06-19
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueSociedade & natureza (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0103-1570 • E-ISSN: 1982-4513
PublisherPPUFU - Portal de Periódicos da Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.14393/sn-v35-2023-67666x
OpenAlexW4381436227
LanguageEN
References cited8

Brazil has the most populous and biodiverse semi-arid region in the world (Brazilian Semi-arid - SAB). However, in recent decades, clusters of desertification have emerged, a problem that could intensify from climate change. The objective of this study was to elaborate on the spatial distribution of areas susceptible to climatic desertification in the SAB, considering future climate change scenarios. Understanding this dynamic is essential for SAB's agri-environmental management. Aridity indices and proposition of climate classes for current condition (1970-2000) and future scenarios (2061-2080) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were prepared, considering scenarios from Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Optimistic (SSP 126) and pessimists (SSP 585). The results indicate that by the end of the century, the climate in the SAB should become significantly drier (Kruskal-Wallis = p-value < 0.05), with an intensification of the aridity index in SSP 585. In the scenarios, the expansion of more arid areas over humid climates could reach 56,500 km2 (10%) in SSP 126 and 140,400 km2 (24%) in SSP 585. Consequently, areas with high (622,400 km2 to 706,300 km2) and very high (622,400 km2 to 706,300 km2) are expected to expand. 4,400 to 21,700 km2) susceptibility to climate desertification in the SAB, respectively in scenarios SSPs 126 and 585. Confirming these projections would imply socioeconomic and ecological risks in the SAB

Arid · Aridity index · Climate change · Climatology · Desert climate · Desertification · Geography · Physical geography · Semi-arid climate · Ecology · Environmental and biological studies · Environmental Science · Geography and Environmental Studies · Geology · Rural Development and Agriculture

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