Conservadorismo e rigidez na política monetária

Uma estimativa da função de reação do BCB (2000-2007)

Datos Bibliográficos

ID4369264
AutoresAndré De Melo Modenesi (0000-0001-5392-2920, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, autor de correspondencia)
Año2011
Volumen31
Número3
Páginas415-434
Fecha de publicación2011-09-01
Peer ReviewedSí
Open AccessSí
TipoARTICLE
RevistaBrazilian Journal of Political Economy (JOURNAL)
Identificadores de la revistaISSN: 0101-3157 • E-ISSN: 1809-4538
EditorialFapUNIFESP (SciELO) (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1590/s0101-31572011000300006
OpenAlexW2107891528
SCIELO_PIDS0101-31572011000300006
IdiomaPT
Citas recibidas5
Referencias citadas20

This paper aims at evaluating the conduction of monetary policy after the adoption of inflation targeting. Formation of Selic rate is modeled by estimating a reaction function of the BCB. Results show an excessive degree of interest rate smoothing and a high level of equilibrium interest rate. This evidence supports the belief that Selic rate's formation is ruled by a conservative behavior. The conservative conduction of monetary policy is related to two distinct features of BCB's reaction function: i) the great weight of autoregressive components; and, chiefly, ii) a very high level of the equilibrium interest rate. The main conclusion is that, all remaining unchanged, the interest rate would hardly be reduced in a satisfactory way. Massive and chronic deflation would be needed if Selic were to reach a reasonable level, closer to that of rates in the rest of the world. This evidences the need for a debate on the adequacy of current stabilization strategy

Physics · Chemistry · Economic Theory and Policy · Global Financial Crisis and Policies · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact