Current equilibrium exchange rate
Methodology and estimations for Latin American countries
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 4369462 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira (0000-0001-8679-0557, Fundação Getulio Vargas), Nelson Marconi (0000-0002-1399-5305, Fundação Getulio Vargas), Tiago Porto (Faculdades Guarulhos), Eliane Cristina Araújo (0000-0001-5104-2508, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico), Eliane Araújo, Rafael Leao (Faculdades Guarulhos) |
| Year | 2022 |
| Publication date | 2022-01-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Brazilian Journal of Political Economy (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0101-3157 • E-ISSN: 1809-4538 |
| Publisher | FapUNIFESP (SciELO) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1590/0101-31572022-3436 |
| OpenAlex | W4317927264 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 4 |
| References cited | 3 |
This paper proposes a methodology for the estimation of the current account equilibrium exchange rate - the exchange rate that guarantees the intertemporal current account equilibrium for a country. Moreover, the methodology is tested throughout appropriate econometric technics (VECM Models) for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Colombia, using quarterly data from around 2000 (according to data availability for each country) to 2020. The model includes both long-term structural variables such as terms of trade, goods and service trade as percentage of GDP and GDP per capita as well short term policy variables such as interest rate differential and EMBI plus. Apart from proposing an innovative methodology for estimating the current account equilibrium exchange rate, the paper brings important insights in terms of chronicle and cyclical appreciation (depreciation) of the exchange rate in LA countries. In addition, it shows high correlation between the exchange rate negative (positive) misalignments and the current account deficits (surpluses) in the countries analyzed
Cointegration · Current account · Depreciation (economics · Econometric model · Econometrics · Economics · Effective exchange rate · Estimation · Exchange rate · Macroeconomics · Microeconomics · Per capita · Economic Theory and Policy · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
| Unique citing works | 4 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1 |
| Citation span | 2022 - 2024 (3) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 3 |