Humans adaptively deploy forward and backward prediction
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 4636718 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Paul B Sharp (0000-0003-4949-1501, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, corresponding author), Eran Eldar (0000-0001-8988-6124, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2024 |
| Volume | 8 |
| Issue | 9 |
| Pages | 1726-1737 |
| Publication date | 2024-07-16 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Nature Human Behaviour (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 2397-3374 • E-ISSN: 2397-3374 |
| Publisher | Springer Science and Business Media LLC (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1038/s41562-024-01930-8 |
| PMID | 39014069 |
| OpenAlex | W4400690618 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 24 |
The formation of predictions is essential to our ability to build models of the world and use them for intelligent decision-making. Here we challenge the dominant assumption that humans form only forward predictions, which specify what future events are likely to follow a given present event. We demonstrate that in some environments, it is more efficient to use backward prediction, which specifies what present events are likely to precede a given future event. This is particularly the case in diverging environments, where possible future events outnumber possible present events. Correspondingly, in six preregistered experiments (n = 1,299) involving both simple decision-making and more challenging planning tasks, we find that humans engage in backward prediction in divergent environments and use forward prediction in convergent environments. We thus establish that humans adaptively deploy forward and backward prediction in the service of efficient decision-making. Models of decision-making assume we predict forward from an action to its potential outcomes. In six studies, Sharp and Eldar show that humans also predict backward from a desired outcome to its preceding actions, particularly in divergent environments
Computer Science · Human Pose and Action Recognition · Memory and Neural Mechanisms · Neural dynamics and brain function · Artificial Intelligence
| Unique citing works | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1 |
| Citation span | 2026 - 2026 (1) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 1 |