Political Succession in Zaïre, or Back to Machiavelli

For many years 'there has been a widespread sense of expectancy' in Zaïre, a premonition of 'fin de reégime'. Yet as Crawford Young went on to explain as early as 1979, although a 'dissolution of the current fabric of power is an ever-present possibility... the surprising survival capacity of the régime makes risky any assertion of the inevitability of such a change.'1 During the last two decades there have been repeated reports that the political life of Zaïre' authoritatrian and absolute Head of State has been in grave danger for a whole variety of reasons, including the alleged loss of support from some powerful army general or 'baron', or the ruined credibility of his régime among international financial organisations, etcetera. The fact that Mobutu Sese Seko continues to remain in power as President means that we need to question our understanding of the situation in Zaïre. Before addressing ourselves to the issue of political succession and of possible scenarios in the future, I shall try to explain the main reasons for the 'survival capacity' of the power structure

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