Dynamics of political instability in the United States, 1780-2010

Dados Bibliográficos

ID4906613
AutoresPeter Turchin (0000-0002-1292-8100, University of Connecticut, autor correspondente)
Ano2012
Volume49
Fascículo4
Páginas577-591
Data de publicação2012-07-01
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoJournal of Peace Research (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 0022-3433 • E-ISSN: 1460-3578
EditoraSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/0022343312442078
OpenAlexW2019600686
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas16
Referências citadas26

This article describes and analyses a database on the dynamics of sociopolitical instability in the United States between 1780 and 2010. The database was constructed by digitizing data collected by previous researchers, supplemented by systematic searches of electronic media archives. It includes 1,590 political violence events such as riots, lynchings, and terrorism. Incidence of political violence fluctuated dramatically over the 230 years covered by the database, following a complex dynamical pattern. Spectral analysis detected two main oscillatory modes. The first is a very long-term - secular - cycle, taking the form of an instability wave during the second half of the 19th century, bracketed by two peaceful periods (the first quarter of the 19th century and the middle decades of the 20th century, respectively). The second is a 50-year oscillation superimposed on the secular cycle, with peaks around 1870, 1920, and 1970. The pattern of two periodicities superimposed on each other is characteristic of the dynamics of political instability in many historical societies, such as ancient Rome and medieval and early-modern England, France, and Russia. A possible explanation of this pattern, discussed in the article, is offered by the structural-demographic theory, which postulates that labor oversupply leads to falling living standards and elite overproduction, and those, in turn, cause a wave of prolonged and intense sociopolitical instability

Archaeology · Dynamics (music) · Elite · Instability · Mechanics · Physics · Political economy · Political instability · Political science · Politics · Quarter (Canadian coin) · Sociology · Terrorism · Crime, Illicit Activities, and Governance · History · Law · Political Conflict and Governance · Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence