Classroom Games

Understanding Bayes' Rule

Bibliographic Data

ID4908053
AuthorsCharles A Holt (0000-0002-7282-0185, Professor of Economics at the University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia.), Lisa R Anderson (0000-0002-8748-222X, Assistant Professor of Economics at the American University, Washington, D.C..)
Year1996
Volume10
Issue2
Pages179-187
Publication date1996-05-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueThe Journal of Economic Perspectives (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0895-3309 • E-ISSN: 1944-7965
PublisherAmerican Economic Association (PUBLISHER • US)
DOI10.1257/jep.10.2.179
OpenAlexW2043437884
LanguageEN
Citations received2
References cited4

This paper uses the technique of experimental economics to set up a classroom situation where students learn to make Bayesian decisions. The exercises allow students to discover for themselves a natural counting heuristic that corresponds to Bayes's rule and is much quicker to use in many situations. In the context of balls and urns, this heuristic involves adjusting ball counts to reflect prior probabilities. It provides a natural bridge between simple intuition and the mathematical formula for Bayes's rule that is presented in undergraduate courses in economic statistics, game theory, and managerial economics

Bayes factor · Bayes' theorem · Bayesian game · Bayesian inference · Bayesian probability · Bayesian statistics · Econometrics · Epistemology · Game theory · Heuristic · Intuition · Machine learning · Mathematical economics · Mathematics education · Repeated game · Computer Science · Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics · Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies · Innovations in Educational Methods · Mathematics · Psychology · Artificial Intelligence

Tools

Open DOISci-HubOpen Access