Economic-Demographic Modeling with Endogenously Determined Birth and Migration Rates

Theory and Prospects

Bibliographic Data

ID4911596
AuthorsAndrew M Isserman (West Virginia University, corresponding author)
Year1985
Volume17
Issue1
Pages25-45
Publication date1985-01-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueEnvironment and Planning A Economy and Space (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0308-518X • E-ISSN: 1472-3409
PublisherSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1068/a170025
PMID12313420
OpenAlexW2113578535
LanguageEN
Citations received11
References cited78

The standard demographic approach to population forecasting consists of extrapolating into the future carefully measured birth, death, and migration rates. An alternative is to forecast changes in those rates on the basis of social science theories. In this paper the prospects for incorporating those theories into forecasting models are assessed. The paper has two parts, the first devoted to fertility and the second to migration. Each contains a description of the demographic methods currently used by the US Bureau of the Census followed by a comprehensive review of the theoretical foundations for forecasting and an assessment of the prospects for doing so

Birth rate · Census · Demographic analysis · Econometrics · Economics · Family planning · Fertility · Geography · Population · Research methodology · Sociology · Total fertility rate · Demography · Gender, Labor, and Family Dynamics · Global Health Care Issues · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management