The Next 2 Billion
Can the World Support 10 Billion People
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 5034672 |
|---|---|
| Authors | David Lam (0000-0002-1765-4532, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Volume | 51 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 63-102 |
| Publication date | 2025-03-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Population and Development Review (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0098-7921 • E-ISSN: 1728-4457 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1111/padr.12685 |
| OpenAlex | W4404113010 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 5 |
| References cited | 41 |
The UN projects that world population will peak at 10.3 billion in 2084, a 2.1 billion increase from 2024. Can the world provide food, water, and other resources to 10.3 billion people? How will additional population exacerbate resource challenges and worsen climate change? This paper analyzes these questions by looking at the last 60 years and by simulating the future impact of population growth and rising incomes on food, water, energy, and CO2 emissions. Looking back, food production has increased faster than the population in all regions, and we have not experienced significant shortages in nonrenewable resources. The history of water and CO2 emissions is less encouraging, however, with declining water levels in many aquifers and global warming threatening to undermine progress in all areas. Looking forward, population growth will be concentrated in poor countries, while rich countries, with higher consumption levels and emissions, will experience population decline. Population growth is projected to significantly increase demand for food and water in coming decades but is projected to have only modest impacts on energy and CO2, with population decline in high-emission higher income countries more than offsetting the impact of population growth in low-emission lower-income countries
Human population growth and the demographic transition
Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points
Reassessing the projections of the World Water Development Report
Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100
Has the World Really Survived the Population Bomb? (Commentary on “How the World Survived the Population Bomb
Impacts of poverty alleviation on national and global carbon emissions
Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications
There’s Technology Improvement, but is there Economy-wide Energy Leapfrogging? A Country Panel Analysis
Population and environment
Population and food systems
Has the world survived the population bomb? A 10-year update
How the World Survived the Population Bomb
Fertility Transition
Population Growth and Global Warming
Africa's Unique Fertility Transition
The Demographic Transition
| Unique citing works | 5 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 5 |
| Citation span | 2025 - 2026 (2) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 5 |