The Opium Trade and Patterns of Terrorism in the Provinces of Afghanistan

An Empirical Analysis

Bibliographic Data

ID5111470
AuthorsJames A Piazza (0000-0002-6557-0894, Pennsylvania State University, corresponding author), James C Piazza (0000-0002-0763-4052)
Year2012
Volume24
Issue2
Pages213-234
Publication date2012-04-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessNo
TypeARTICLE
VenueTerrorism and Political Violence (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0954-6553 • E-ISSN: 1556-1836
PublisherInforma UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1080/09546553.2011.648680
OpenAlexW1965030286
LanguageEN
Citations received14
References cited19

Contemporary terrorist movements in Afghanistan are frequently alleged to be fueled, in part, by the country's voluminous opium trade. Experts argue that terrorist groups currently active in Afghanistan, like the Afghan Taliban, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, Hizbul Islami, and various al-Qaeda affiliates, use drug trade profits to recruit and pay cadres, acquire weapons and equipment, and bribe officials while becoming more powerful, and deadly, in the process. This study empirically examines the relationship between the opium trade and terrorism in Afghanistan by conducting a series of negative binomial regression estimations on terrorist attacks and casualties in the 34 Afghan provinces for the period 1996 to 2008. The analysis also considers various economic development, infrastructure, geographic, security, and cultural factors when examining causes of terrorism in the provinces. The study determines that, across all model specifications, provinces that produce more opium feature higher levels of terrorist attacks and casualties due to terrorism, and that opium production is a more robust predictor of terrorism than nearly all other province features. Furthermore, tests indicate that the direction of causation runs from opium production to higher rates of terrorism, not otherwise. The study concludes with a brief discussion of the policy implications of the findings

Afghan · Al qaeda · Backdoor · Computer security · Development economics · Economics · Negative binomial distribution · Opium · Political economy · Political science · Terrorism · Crime, Illicit Activities, and Governance · Law · Politics and Conflicts in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Middle East · Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence

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