Skip to main content

ETHNOS_APP

Home • Search • Journals • List 0

Do local elections predict the outcome of the next general election? Forecasting British general elections from local election national vote share estimates

Bibliographic Data

ID5124702
AuthorsChristopher Prosser (0000-0002-2992-8190, University of Manchester, corresponding author)
Year2016
Volume41
Pages274-278
Publication date2016-03-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueElectoral Studies (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0261-3794 • E-ISSN: 1873-6890
PublisherElsevier BV (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.008
OpenAlexW2184021038
LanguageEN
Citations received6
References cited7

Contingent vote · Economics · General election · Group voting ticket · Microeconomics · Outcome (game theory · Parliament · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Primary election · Spoilt vote · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy · Gender Politics and Representation · Law · Public Administration

  • A seat-level nowcast of the Front National in the 2017 legislatives

    Open Access•Jocelyn Evans, Gilles Ivaldi•French Politics•2016

  • Micromotives and macromoves

    Open Access•Georgios Efthyvoulou, Vincenzo Bove et al.•Journal of Economic Geography•2023

  • The strange death of multi-party Britain

    Christopher Prosser•West European Politics•2018

  • Localized dynamics and national implications

    Stithorn Thananithichot, Natchapat Amorngul et al.•Asian Journal of Political Science•2025

  • Do party leadership contests forecast British general elections

    Open Access•Andreas Erwin Murr•Electoral Studies•2021

  • The evolution of election forecasting models in the UK

    Open Access•Mary Stegmaier, Steven Jokinsky et al.•Electoral Studies•2023

  • Not All ‘Second-Order’ Contests are the Same

    Open Access•Colin Rallings, Michael Thrasher•The British Journal of Politics…•2005

  • Nine Second‐order National Elections – A Conceptual Framework for the Analysis of European Election Results

    Open Access•Karlheinz Reif, Hermann Schmitt•European Journal of Political…•1980

  • Between first and second order

    Open Access•A F Heath, Anthony Heath et al.•European Journal of Political…•1999

  • From polls to votes to seats

    Open Access•Stephen D Fisher, Richard Ford et al.•Electoral Studies•2011

  • Forecasting the 2010 general election using aggregate local election data

    Open Access•Colin Rallings, Michael Thrasher et al.•Electoral Studies•2011

Unique citing works6
Citations per year0,6
Citation span2016 - 2025 (10)
Citation velocityrecent
Highly citedNo
Citation typesNeutral: 6

Tools

Open DOISci-HubOpen Access
Ethnos_APP • Open Source Project • MIT License • Frontend v2.0.0 • Privacy and Cookies • API Documentation: api.ethnos.app/docs • API Source Code: GitHub • DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17049435 • Frontend Source Code: GitHub • DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17050053 • cruz.rio.br • Expectantes Misericordiae