American political affiliation, 2003-43

The recent rise in identification with American political parties has focused interest on the long-term dynamics of party support. Liberal commentators cite immigration and youth as forces that will produce a natural advantage for the Democrats in the future, while conservative writers highlight the importance of high fertility amongst Republicans in securing growth. These opinions are not based on demographic analysis. We addressed this omission by undertaking the first ever cohort component projection (up to 2043) of populations by American party allegiance, based on survey and census data. On current trends, we predict that American partisanship will change much less than the nation's ethnic composition because the parties are similar in age structure. Nevertheless, our projections suggest that the Democrats will gain 2-3 per cent more support than the Republicans by 2043, mainly through immigration, although the higher fertility of Republicans may eventually offset that advantage

Memory, violence, and history · Philosophy

• Creating a racially polarized electorate

  Gregory Robinson, Jonathan S Krasno et al.•Politics Groups and Identities•2015

  Añadir item

• Generations and Politics

  M Kent Jennings, Richard G Niemi•Generations and Politics•1981

  Añadir item

• Myth of the Independent Voter

  Keith Magleby, Elizabeth Orr et al.•Myth of the Independent Voter•1992

  Añadir item

• Political Demography, Demographic Engineering

  Michael Weiner, Myron Weiner et al.•Political Demography, Demographic…•2001

  Añadir item

• The rank-order consistency of personality traits from childhood to old age

  Brent W Roberts, Wendy F DelVecchio•Psychological Bulletin•2000

  Añadir item

• The Northern Ireland Conflict

  John Mcgarry, Brian O’leary et al.•The Northern Ireland conflict•2004

  Añadir item

• Value Orientations and the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) in Northern, Western and Southern Europe

  Open Access•Johan Surkyn, Ron Lesthaeghe•Demographic Research•2004

  Añadir item

• Ideological Realignment in the U.S. Electorate

  Alan I Abramowitz, Kyle L Saunders•The Journal of Politics•1998

  Añadir item

• Unrealized Partisans, Realized Independents, and the Intergenerational Transmission of Partisan Identification

  Franco Mattei, Richard G Niemi•The Journal of Politics•1991

  Añadir item

• The Foundations of Latino Voter Partisanship

  R Michael Alvarez, Lisa Garcia Bedolla•The Journal of Politics•2003

  Añadir item

• Mothers Versus Fathers

  M Kent Jenning, M Kent Jennings et al.•The Journal of Politics•1969

  Añadir item

• Family Traditions, Political Periods, and the Development of Partisan Orientations

  Paul A Beck, M Kent Jenning et al.•The Journal of Politics•1991

  Añadir item

• Macropartisanship in California

  John L Korey•Public Opinion Quarterly•2006

  Añadir item

• Changing Sides or Changing Minds? Party Identification and Policy Preferences in the American Electorate

  Open Access•Thomas M Carsey, Geoffrey C Layman•American Journal of Political…•2006

  Añadir item

• Generations and Collective Memories

  Howard Schuman, Jacqueline Scott•American Sociological Review•1989

  Añadir item

• The Second Demographic Transition in the United States

  Open Access•Ron J Lesthaeghe, Ron Lesthaeghe et al.•Population and Development Review•2006

  Añadir item

• Intermarriage and the risk of divorce in the Netherlands

  M Kalmijn, Paul M De Graaf et al.•Population Studies•2005

  Añadir item

• Data quality and accuracy of United Nations population projections, 1950-95

  Nico Keilman•Population Studies•2001

  Añadir item

• Macropartisanship

  Open Access•Donald P Green, Donald Green et al.•American Political Science Review•1998

  Añadir item

• Tracking the Restructuring of American Religion

  D E Sherkat•Social Forces•2001

  Añadir item

• Gender Ideology, Marital Disruption, and the Employment of Married Women

  Theodore N Greenstein•Journal of Marriage and the Family•1995

  Añadir item

• Religious Practice

  L R Iannaccone•Journal for the Scientific Study…•1990

  Añadir item

• Secularism, Fundamentalism, or Catholicism? The Religious Composition of the United States to 2043

  Open Access•Vegard Skirbekk, Eric Kaufmann et al.•Journal for the Scientific Study…•2010

  Añadir item

• The Demographic Imperative in Religious Change in the United States

  M Hout, Andrew Greeley et al.•American Journal of Sociology•2001

  Añadir item

• Aging, Cohorts, and the Stability of Sociopolitical Orientations Over the Life Span

  Duane F Alwin, Jon A Krosnick•American Journal of Sociology•1991

  Añadir item