The Changing Probability of Divorce

I N MANY national statistical offices abroad, and in some local statistical offices in the United States, divorce data are often properly classified along with marriage data as vital statistics.' In view of the fact that the United States ranks first in its divorce rate, and recognizing the apparent threat of divorce to the family, it represents an evident lag that satistics of marriage and divorce have been so largely neglected in the United States. The reasons for this, and the reasons why one of the first governmental economies in I932 was to cease collection of this most vital of all statistical data (while fostering an immensity of other statistical reports), would be interesting to search out. The intermittent and scanty federal reports create a need which locally gathered data cannot fill;2 and remembering the initial crudity of the data, ingenious mathematical manipulations might merely be an exercise in mental gymnastics, if not a propagandistic disguise.' However, the data at hand are not always utilized to the fullest even when the necessary techniques have been suggested. As early as i909, the Bureau of the Census, in remarking on its table showing divorces according to years of duration of marriage, cautioned

Criminology · Sociology · Family Dynamics and Relationships · Gender, Labor, and Family Dynamics · Psychology