Belief in the paranormal
Probability judgements, illusory control, and the 'chance baseline shift
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 5266802 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Susan Blackmore (0000-0003-0845-2223), Tom Trościanko |
| Year | 1985 |
| Volume | 76 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 459-468 |
| Publication date | 1985-11-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | British Journal of Psychology (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0007-1269 • E-ISSN: 2044-8295 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1111/j.2044-8295.1985.tb01969.x |
| OpenAlex | W2072242895 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 29 |
Possible reasons for belief in the paranormal are discussed and two hypotheses suggested. The first -that some belief in psi arises from misjudgements of probability - predicts more errors in probability tasks among believers (sheep) than disbelievers (goats). In two experiments subjects completed various computer-controlled probability tasks. In the first sheep performed worse than goats on most tasks and were significantly worse at responding appropriately to changes in sample size. In Expt 2 sheep were significantly worse at questions involving sampling.The second hypothesis is that some belief in psi arises from an illusion of control. Previous studies have shown a greater illusion of control among sheep in psi tasks (even when no psi occurs). We predicted the same effect in tasks not overtly involving psi. This was confirmed in Expt 3, using a computer-controlled coin-tossing task. Half the trials allowed for subject control of the coin and half did not. Sheep felt that they were exercising greater control than goats (irrespective of actual control) but estimated they had scored fewer hits. This could be explained if sheep misjudged chance scoring level. This was tested and sheep were found to underestimate chance scores. This 'chance baseline shift' could underlie the illusion of control and the belief in psi. No evidence of psi was found
Cognitive psychology · Control (management) · Illusion · Illusion of control · Paranormal · Statistics · Task (project management) · Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science · Mathematics · Medicine · Misinformation and Its Impacts · Paranormal Experiences and Beliefs · Psychology · Social Psychology
Mental Health and the Paranormal
Repetition Avoidance in Responses to Imaginary Questions
Epistemic rationality
Belief in Conspiracy Theories and Susceptibility to the Conjunction Fallacy
Hindsight and Confirmation Biases in an Exercise in Telepathy
Tendency toward Controlling Behavior in Adult Children of Problem Drinkers
Hindsight and Confirmation Biases in an Exercise in Telepathy
Covariation Bias and Paranormal Belief
Unimpaired abduction to alien abduction
The role of cognitive biases in shaping irrational beliefs
Individual differences in epistemically suspect beliefs
Coincidence judgment in causal reasoning
Children's representation of coincidence
The self-attribution bias and paranormal beliefs
The role of the extrapersonal brain systems in religious activity
Believing is seeing
Psychics, aliens, or experience? Using the Anomalistic Belief Scale to examine the relationship between type of belief and probabilistic reasoning
Theological Incorrectness
Belief in psychic ability and the misattribution hypothesis
Costly superstitious beliefs
Connecting the dots
Suspicious binds
How can representationalism accommodate degrees of belief? A dispositional representationalist proposal
Wer spielt, hat schon verloren
Validation of the Narrative Emplotment Scale and its correlations with well‐being and psychological adjustment
Subclinical delusional ideation and appreciation of sample size and heterogeneity in statistical judgment
Causal illusion as a cognitive basis of pseudoscientific beliefs
Superstition predicts perception of illusory control
Social Influence on Paranormal Beliefs
| Unique citing works | 29 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,88 |
| Citation span | 1993 - 2025 (33) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 27 |