Detected and projected temperature changes in the area of Mediterranean Montenegro
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 5288283 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Dragan Burić (0000-0003-0905-1915, Department of Geography, Faculty of Philosophy University of Montenegro Nikšić Montenegro, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2024 |
| Volume | 190 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Publication date | 2024-12-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Geographical Journal (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0016-7398 • E-ISSN: 1475-4959 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1111/geoj.12580 |
| OpenAlex | W4392357108 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 32 |
The goal of this research is to present the results of a detailed analysis of detected and projected temperature changes in Montenegro. A total of 10 temperature parameters from 18 meteorological stations were used. Initially, an analysis of temperature changes during the instrumental period (1961-2020) was conducted, followed by the results of high-resolution (12.5 km) bias-corrected projections from the regional ALADIN, REMO and CCLM4 models for the period 2021-2100, according to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios (representative concentration pathways). The simple difference method and trend method were employed for research purposes. Compared with the period 1961-1990, the highest temperature increase during 1991-2020 is observed in summer (TSu), while the rates of increase were slower in spring, winter and autumn (TSp, TW and TA). The average annual maximum temperature (TYx) registered a higher increase compared with the average minimum (TYn). Frosty days (FD) decreased, while the number of summer and tropical days (SU and TD) increased. The projection results indicate that the period 2021-2050 is expected to be warmer, the period 2051-2080 even warmer, and the period 2081-2100 is expected to be the warmest. In the last analysed period (2081-2100), according to the RCP8.5 scenario, the average TSu is expected to be higher by 3.7-4.6°C (CCLM4), 4.1-4.7°C (ALADIN) and 4.7-5.8°C (REMO), with an anticipated increase in TW ranging between 3.3-4.5°C (ALADIN), 3.6-5.4°C (CCLM4) and 3.4-5.6°C (REMO). In the period 2021-2100, according to the RCP4.5 scenario, the expected average trend values for TYx (TYn) are expected to be (°C/decade) 0.24 (0.26), 0.16 (0.12) and 0.20 (0.23) for the ALADIN, REMO and CCLM4 models, respectively, and according to the RCP8.5 scenario, 0.47 (0.52), 0.63 (0.57) and 0.51 (0.53), respectively. These findings have implications for planning mitigation and adaptation measures to address climate change, particularly in strategic economic sectors such as tourism, agriculture and water management in Montenegro
Archaeology · Geography · Mediterranean area · Mediterranean climate · Montenegro · Physical geography · Regional science · Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
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| Citations per year | 0.5 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2024 - 2024 (1) |
| Highly cited | No |