Global trends and impact of democratic recession

Globally, democratisation momentum has shown a decline in the last two decades. This article contributes to the existing knowledge on the significance of democracy noting its intrinsic, instrumental, and constructive value, and how democratic recession tends to negate these values. The article identifies deep-seated structural drivers and above-the-surface superstructural triggers of democratic recession, highlighting their trends, manifestations, and impact. It advances the discourse by arguing that, while democratic recession has a discernible global reach and impact, its profound salience in the Global South is its distinctive interface with the limits/inadequacy of liberal democracy in place. The article identifies two critical repercussions of the interface between democratic recession and the inadequacy of liberal democracy, namely a strained state-society social contract and enfeebled social cohesion. In redressing democratic recession, the Global South is confronted with hard choices either to maintain the status quo, reform or transform the liberal democratic model.KEYWORDS: Democracydevelopmentelectionshuman rightsreformsocial contractsocial cohesiontransformation Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 Licia Cainetti and Sean Hanley, 'The End of the Backsliding Paradigm,' Journal of Democracy 32, no. 1 (2021): 66.2 Cainetti and Hanley, 'The End of the Backsliding Paradigm,' 66.3 Amartya Sen, 'Democracy as a Universal Value,' Journal of Democracy 10, no. 3: 3–7.4 Nic Cheeseman and Sishuwa Sishuwa, 'African Studies Keyword: Democracy,' African Studies Review (2021): 2.5 David Van Reybrouck, Against Elections: The Case for Democracy (New York: Seven Stories Press, 2018).6 Van Reybrouck, Against Elections.7 Sen, 'Democracy as a Universal Value,' 3–7.8 Sen, 'Democracy as a Universal Value,' 8.9 Nanjala Nyabole, Digital Democracy, Analogue Politics: How the Internet ere is Transforming Politics in Kenya (London: Zed Books, 2018).10 The Human Development Report was first introduced in 1990 and has since advanced a new, and in many ways refreshing, message that economic growth without advancement of people's livelihoods is an exercise in futility. To back up this message the HDR introduced the simple (yet not simplistic) concept of sustainable human development (SHD) together with the Human Development Index (HDI). HDI is a summary composite index that measures a country's basic aspects of human development namely (a) health measured by life expectancy at birth; (b) knowledge measured by adult literacy rate and combined primary, secondary and tertiary enrolment ratio; and (c) standard of living measured by GDP per capita (PPPUS$) (http://hdr.undp.org.en/statistics). See in particular UNDP, Deepening Democracy in a Fragmented World, Human Development Report (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2002).11 Amartya Sen, Development as Freedom (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1999).12 Sen, Development as Freedom, 147–8.13 Sen, Development as Freedom, 38–40.14 Samuel Huntington, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century (Norman: University of Oklahoma Press, 1991).15 Jeffrey Haynes, Democracy and Political Change in the Third World (London: Francis and Taylor, 2002); Van Reybrouck, Against Elections.16 Leonardo Arriola, Lise Rakner, and Nicolas van de Walle, Democratic Backsliding in Africa: Autocratisation, Resilience and Contention (London: Oxford University Press, 2023), 1.17 Larry Diamond, 'Facing up to the Democratic Recession,' Journal of Democracy 26, no. 1 (2015): 142.18 Arriola, Rakner, and van de Walle, Democratic Backsliding in Africa, 10–12.19 IDEA, The Global State of Democracy, 2019: Addressing the Ills, Reviving the Promise (Stockholm: IDEA, 2019); IDEA, The Global State of Democracy, 2022: Forging Social Contracts in a Time of Discontent (Stockholm: IDEA, 2019).20 Sarah Repucci and Amy Slipowitz, Democracy Under Siege, Freedom in the World 2021 (Washington, DC: Freedom House, 2021), 1.21 Yana Gorokhovskala, Adrian Shahbaz, and Amy Slipowitz, Marking 50 Years in the Struggle for Democracy, Freedom in the World 2023 (Washington, DC: Freedom House, 2023), 2.22 V-Dem Institute, Autocratization Turns Viral: Democracy Report 2021 (Gothenburg: University of Gothenburg, Sweden, 2021), 9.23 Emmanuel Gymah-Boadi, Democratic Backsliding in West Africa: Nature, Causes and Remedies, Research Report (Geneva: Kofi Annan Foundation, 2021).24 Milan Svolik, Elena Avramovska, Johanna Lutz, and Filip Milacic, 'In Europe, Democracy Erodes from the Right,' Journal of Democracy 34, no. 1 (2023): 17.25 Scott Mainwaring and Anibal Perez-Linan, 'Why Latin America's Democracies are Stuck,' Journal of Democracy 34, no. 1 (2023): 157.26 V-Dem Institute, Defiance in the Face of Autocratization: Democracy Report 2023 (Gothenburg: University of Gothenburg, 2023), 6.27 Larry Diamond, 'Democracy's Arc: From Resurgent to Imperiled,' Journal of Democracy 33, no. 1 (2015): 171.28 Simon Tormey, 'Stresses and Strains: Will We Ever Agree on What's Going Wrong With Democracy?', Representation 58, no. 1 (2022), 16.29 Tormey, 'Stresses and Strains,' 16.30 IDEA, The Global State of Democracy, 2019, 41.31 Fathali Moghaddan, Threat to Democracy: The Appeal of Authoritarianism in an Age of Uncertainty (Washington, DC: American Psychological Association, 2019), 12–13.32 Kurt Weyland, 'How Populism Corrodes Latin American Political Parties,' Journal of Democracy 34, no. 4 (2021): 42.33 See Draft Agreement for the Lasting Peace through a Permanent Cessation of Hostilities between the Government of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and the Tigray Peoples' Liberation Front (TPLF), Pretoria, South Africa, 2 November 2022.34 Al Jazeera. Ethiopia declares state of emergency following clashes in Amhara, Al Jazeera news, 4 August 2023.35 Those coups were in Sudan (2019, 2021, followed by outright civil war in 2023), Mali (2020, 2021), Guinea (2021), Chad (2021), Burkina Faso (Feb 2022, Sept 2022), Niger (2023), Gabon (2023) and three attempted military coups in Niger (2020), Guinea Bissau (2021), Sao Tome & Principe (2022) and Burkina Faso (2023).36 Joshua Kurlantzick, The Revival of Military Rule in South and Southeast Asia: Dangers to the Region's Democratic Future, Discussion Paper (Brussels: Council on Foreign Relations, European Union, 2022), 6–7.37 Frank Mora and Brian Fonseca, 'Latin America's Armed Forces: It is not the 1970s Again for Latin America's Militaries. Here is Why,' Americas Quarterly (2019): 11.38 Khabele Matlosa, 'Governance in Africa: AU Achievements, Challenges and Prospects,' in The Africa Union at 20: African Perspectives on Progress, Challenges and Prospects, ed. Wafula Okumu and Andrew Atta-Asamoah (Pretoria: Institute for Security Studies (ISS), 2023), 158–86.39 United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, Elections and the Management of Diversity, African Governance Report III (Addis Ababa, 2013).40 Godwin Murunga, Spontaneous or Premeditated? Post-Election Violence in Kenya, Discussion Paper No. 57 (Uppsala: Nordic Africa Institute, 2011), 17.41 V-Dem Institute, Autocratization Turns Viral, 20.42 Khabele Matlosa, 'Democracy Under Quarantine: Political Costs of COVID-19 in Africa,' Africa Insight 50, no. 2 (2020): 42–59; Khabele Matlosa, 'Elections in Africa During Covid-19: The Tenuous Balance Between Democracy and Human Security,' Politikon 48, no. 2 (2021): 159–73; Toby James, Alistair Clark, and Erik Asplund, eds., Elections During Emergencies and Crises: Lessons for Electoral Integrity from the Covid-19 Pandemic (Stockholm: IDEA, 2023).43 Matlosa, 'Democracy under Quarantine,' 42–59.44 Daniel Lindvall, Democracy and the Challenge of Climate Change, IDEA Discussion Paper 3 (Stockholm: IDEA, 2021), 8–9.45 Terry Karl, 'Imposing Consent? Electoralism Versus Democratisation in El Salvador,' in Elections and Democratisation in Latin America, 1980–1985, ed. Paul Drake and Eduardo Silva (San Diego: Centre for Iberian and Latin American Studies, 1986).46 Van Reybrouck, Against Elections.47 Van Reybrouck, Against Elections.48 Nicolas Cheeseman and Brian Klaas, How to Rig an Election (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2018), 1.49 Thandika Mkandawire, Disempowering New Democracies and the Persistence of Poverty, Democracy, Governance and Human Rights Paper Number 21 (Geneva: United Nations Research Institute for Social Development, 2006).50 Van Reybrouck, Against Elections, 67.51 Van Reybrouck, Against Elections, 63.52 Van Reybrouck, Against Elections, 136.53 Van Reybrouck, Against Elections, 152.54 David Simon, Wim Van Spengen, Chris Dixon, and Anders Narman, eds., Structurally Adjusted Africa: Poverty, Debt and Basic Needs (London: Pluto Press, 1995).55 Emmanuel Gyimah-Boadi, Selected Findings from Afrobarometer Round 8 Surveys, Presentation to the African Parliamentary Forum, March 2021.56 IDEA, Voter Turnout Database, Stockholm, Sweden, http://www.idea.int.57 IEC-South Africa Website, https://www.elections.org.za.58 IEC-South Africa Website, https://www.elections.org.za.59 Khabele Matlosa, 'Governance in Africa: AU Achievements, Challenges and Prospects,' in The African Unio at 20: African Perspectives on Progress, Challenges and Prospects, ed. Wafula Okumu and Andrews Atta-Mensah (Pretoria: Institute for Security Studies, 2023).60 Khabele Matlosa, 'Governance in Africa,' 154–82.61 Matlosa, 'Democracy Under Quarantine,' 42–59.62 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Social Cohesion in a Shifting World-Perspectives on Global Development (Paris: OECD Centre, 2021).63 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Social Cohesion in a Shifting World-Perspectives.64 United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), Social Cohesion in Eastern Africa (Addis Ababa: UNECA, 2016).65 Emmanuel Gyimah-Boadi, Democratic Backsliding in West Africa: Nature, Causes, Remedies (Geneva: Kofi Annan Foundation, 2021).66 Nic Cheeseman and Sishuwa Sishuwa, 'African Studies Keyword: Democracy,' 4.67 Nic Cheeseman and Sishuwa Sishuwa, 'African Studies Keyword: Democracy'; Cheeseman Nic and Sishuwa, Sishuwa. 'Africans Want Consensual Democracy – Why is That Reality so Hard to Accept,' The Conversation, 11 July 2021.68 George Ayittey, Indigenous African Institutions (Leiden: Brill, 2006), 44.69 Nic Cheeseman and Sishuwa Sishuwa, 'African Studies Keyword: Democracy,' 14.70 Claude Ake, 'Rethinking African Democracy,' Journal of Democracy 2, no. 1 (1991): 32–44; Claude Ake, 'The Unique Case of African Democracy,' International Affairs 69, no. 2 (1993): 239–44; Claude Ake, Democracy and Development in Africa (Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution, 1996); Claude Ake, The Feasibility of Democracy in Africa (Dakar: CODESRIA Books, 2000).71 Ake, Democracy and Development in Africa, 132.72 Ake, Democracy and Development in Africa; Ake, The Feasibility of Democracy in Africa; Khabele Matlosa, 'The State of Democratisation in Southern Africa: Blocked Transitions, Reversals, Stagnation, Progress and Prospects,' Politikon 44, no. 1 (2017): 5–26; Khabele Matlosa, 'The Nature and Future of Democracy in Africa: The Essence of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance,', African Journal of Democracy and Governance 5, no. 3 (2018): 67–84.73 Privilege Haang'andu and Daniel Beland, 'Democratization Without Westernisation? Embedding Democracy in Local African Cultures,' Politikon 6, no. 2 (2019): 219–39.74 Adebayo Adedeji, 'Democracy and Development: A Complex Relationship', in Challenges of Conflict, Democracy and Development in Africa, ed. Khabele Matlosa, Jorgen Elklit, and Bertha Chiroro (Johannesburg: EISA Books, 2006); Ake, Democracy and Development in Africa; Ake, The Feasibility of Democracy in Africa; Matlosa, 'The State of Democratisation in Southern Africa,' 5–26; Omano Edigheji, Democracy Without Development: How to Fix It (Abuja: A'lime Media Limited, 2020).75 Khabele Matlosa, Jorgen Elklit, and Bertha Chiroro, eds., Challenges of Conflict, Democracy and Development in Africa (Johannesburg: EISA Books, 2006).Additional informationNotes on contributorsKhabele MatlosaKhabele Matlosa is a Visiting Professor at the Centre for African Diplomacy and Leadership at the University of Johannesburg. He is the author of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance which was adopted by the African Union (AU) Heads of State and Government in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia in 2007 and which came into force in 2012. His latest publication is 'Governance in Africa: AU Achievements, Challenges and Prospects,' in The Africa Union at 20: African Perspectives on Progress, Challenges and Prospects, ed. W Okumu and A Atta-Asamoah (Pretoria: Institute for Security Studies (ISS)), 158–86

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