Pular para o conteúdo principal

ETHNOS_APP

Início • Busca • Periódicos • Lista 0

Projections of Future Extreme Weather Losses Under Changes in Climate and Exposure

Dados Bibliográficos

ID5816895
AutoresLaurens M Bouwer (0000-0003-3498-2586, Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam The Netherlands, autor correspondente)
Ano2012
Volume33
Fascículo5
Páginas915-930
Data de publicação2012-09-07
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoRisk Analysis (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 0272-4332 • E-ISSN: 1539-6924
EditoraWiley (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01880.x
PMID22958147
OpenAlexW2113917110
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas22
Referências citadas61

Many attempts are made to assess future changes in extreme weather events due to anthropogenic climate change, but few studies have estimated the potential change in economic losses from such events. Projecting losses is more complex as it requires insight into the change in the weather hazard but also into exposure and vulnerability of assets. This article discusses the issues involved as well as a framework for projecting future losses, and provides an overview of some state-of-the-art projections. Estimates of changes in losses from cyclones and floods are given, and particular attention is paid to the different approaches and assumptions. All projections show increases in extreme weather losses due to climate change. Flood losses are generally projected to increase more rapidly than losses from tropical and extra-tropical cyclones. However, for the period until the year 2040, the contribution from increasing exposure and value of capital at risk to future losses is likely to be equal or larger than the contribution from anthropogenic climate change. Given the fact that the occurrence of loss events also varies over time due to natural climate variability, the signal from anthropogenic climate change is likely to be lost among the other causes for changes in risk, at least during the period until 2040. More efforts are needed to arrive at a comprehensive approach that includes quantification of changes in hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, as well as adaptation effects

Extreme weather · Natural hazard · Vulnerability · Agricultural risk and resilience · Flood Risk Assessment and Management · Hydrology and Drought Analysis

  • Climate Change and Poverty—An Analytical Framework

    Mook Bangalore, Stephane Hallegatte et al.•2014

  • Flood risk and climate change

    Zbigniew W Kundzewicz, Shinjiro Kanae et al.•Hydrological Sciences Journal•2014

  • Projecting End-of-Century Human Exposure from Tornadoes and Severe Hailstorms in Eastern Colorado

    Samuel J Childs, Russ S Schumacher et al.•Weather, Climate, and Society•2020

  • Quantifying livestock vulnerability to snow disasters in the Tibetan Plateau

    Open Access•Tao Ye, Weihang Liu et al.•International Journal of Disaster…•2020

  • Conceptualizing and evaluating the role of a data platform as an entry-point for strengthening flood risk governance in Canada

    Open Access•Andrea Minano, Jason Thistlethwaite et al.•International Journal of Disaster…•2024

  • Economic vulnerability of small-scale coastal households to extreme weather events in Southern India

    Open Access•P S Sreya, Chitra Parayil et al.•Marine Policy•2021

  • Governance of flood risk data

    Open Access•Andrea Minano, Jason Thistlethwaite et al.•Computers Environment and Urban…•2021

  • Evaluation of cold island mitigation benefits in heat island city based on connectivity

    Open Access•Aokang Xu, Jing Shi et al.•Sustainable Cities and Society•2026

  • Climate change through a poverty lens

    Open Access•Stephane Hallegatte, Julie Rozenberg•Nature Climate Change•2017

  • On the need for a hazardous flood vulnerability index

    Open Access•Xeynab Mouti Al-Hashimi, Avidesh Seenath•Anthropocene•2026

  • Linking regional economic impacts of temperature-related disasters to underlying climatic hazards

    Open Access•Varun Mithal, Jana Sillmann et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2024

  • Global mortality from storm surges is decreasing

    Open Access•Laurens M Bouwer, Sebastiaan N Jonkman•Environmental Research Letters•2017

  • Historic and future increase in the global land area affected by monthly heat extremes

    Open Access•Dim Coumou, Alexander Robinson•Environmental Research Letters•2013

  • Challenges and opportunities in climate risk assessment

    Open Access•Oscar Higuera Roa, Michaela Bachmann et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2025

  • Losses and expenditures caused by extreme events in Poland

    Open Access•Ewelina Siwiec•Disaster Prevention and…•2015

  • Projected Increases in Hurricane Damage in the United States

    Open Access•Terry Dinan•Ecological Economics•2017

  • From forests to factories

    Open Access•K Bales, B K Sovacool•Energy Research & Social Science•2021

  • Modern political economy, global environmental change and urban sustainability transitions

    Open Access•Michail Fragkias, Christopher G Boone•Current Opinion in Environmental…•2016

  • Empirical evidence of declining global vulnerability to climate-related hazards

    Open Access•Giuseppe Formetta, Luc Feyen•Global Environmental Change•2019

  • A spatial model for coastal flood susceptibility assessment using the 2D-SPR method with complex network theory

    Open Access•Xin Fang, Yifei Zhang et al.•Environmental Impact Assessment…•2023

  • The power of place-based Future Visioning

    Open Access•Thaisa Cristina Comelli, Thaisa Comelli et al.•Cities•2025

  • Understanding disaster (in)justice

    Open Access•Shu-Mei Huang, Shu‐mei Huang et al.•Environment and Planning E Nature…•2018

  • Hurricanes and Climate Change

    Open Access•James B Elsner, Thomas H Jagger•Current topics in microbiology…•2009

  • Tropical cyclones and climate change

    Open Access•Thomas R Knutson, John L McBride et al.•Nature Geoscience•2010

  • Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “reasons for concern”

    Open Access•Joel B Smith, Stephen H Schneider et al.•Proceedings of the National…•2009

  • Stationarity Is Dead

    Open Access•P C D Milly, Julio L Betancourt et al.•Science•2008

  • Transitions towards adaptive management of water facing climate and global change

    Open Access•Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Claudia Pahl‐wostl•Water Resources Management•2006

  • Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes

    Open Access•Morris A Bender, Thomas R Knutson et al.•Science•2010

  • Have Disaster Losses Increased Due to Anthropogenic Climate Change?

    Laurens M Bouwer•Bulletin of the American…•2011

  • Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States

    Roger A Pielke, Joel Gratz et al.•Natural Hazards Review•2008

  • Do Natural Disasters Promote Long‐run Growth?

    Open Access•Monique Skidmore, Mark Skidmore et al.•Economic Inquiry•2002

  • The marginal damage costs of carbon dioxide emissions

    Open Access•Richard S J Tol, Richard Sj Tol•Energy Policy•2005

  • A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate extremes

    Open Access•Susan Hanson, Robert J Nicholls et al.•Climatic Change•2011

  • Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation

    Open Access•M Jarraud, Simon K Allen et al.•Managing the Risks of Extreme…•2012

  • Economic development and the impacts of natural disasters

    Open Access•Hideki Toya, Monique Skidmore et al.•Economics Letters•2006

  • Emergence timescales for detection of anthropogenic climate change in US tropical cyclone loss data

    Open Access•Ryan P Crompton, Roger A Pielke et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2011

  • Integrated hydrodynamic and economic modelling of flood damage in the Netherlands

    Open Access•Sebastiaan N Jonkman, M Bočkarjova et al.•Ecological Economics•2008

  • Willingness of homeowners to mitigate climate risk through insurance

    Open Access•W J Wouter Botzen, Jeroen C J H Aerts et al.•Ecological Economics•2009

  • Economic development and losses due to natural disasters

    Open Access•Ingmar Schumacher, Eric Strobl•Ecological Economics•2011

  • Future risk of flooding

    Open Access•Bob Maaskant, Sebastiaan N Jonkman et al.•Environmental Science & Policy•2009

  • Mistreatment of the economic impacts of extreme events in the Stern Review Report on the Economics of Climate Change

    Open Access•Roger A Pielke•Global Environmental Change•2007

  • Increased crop damage in the US from excess precipitation under climate change

    Open Access•Cynthia Rosenzweig, F N Tubiello et al.•Global Environmental Change•2002

  • Changes in future flood risk due to climate and development in a Dutch polder area

    Open Access•Laurens M Bouwer, Philip Bubeck et al.•Global Environmental Change•2010

  • Can natural disasters have positive consequences? Investigating the role of embodied technical change

    Open Access•Stephane Hallegatte, Patrice Dumas•Ecological Economics•2008

  • Does rising income increase or decrease damage risk from natural disasters

    Open Access•Derek K Kellenberg, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak•Journal of Urban Economics•2008

Obras citantes distintas22
Citações por ano1,69
Intervalo de citações2013 - 2026 (14)
Velocidade de citaçãocurrent
Altamente citadoNão
Tipos de citaçãoNeutras: 22
Ethnos_APP • Projeto Open Source • Licença MIT • Frontend v2.0.0 • Privacidade e Cookies • Documentação da API: api.ethnos.app/docs • Código da API: GitHub • DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17049435 • Código do Frontend: GitHub • DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17050053 • cruz.rio.br • Expectantes Misericordiae