Pronóstico de la demanda turística de Chile basado en modelos lineales y no lineales estacionales
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 5908158 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Cristian Colther (0000-0003-0606-6249, Austral University of Chile), Ailin Arriagada-Millaman (0000-0003-3173-7438) |
| Year | 2021 |
| Volume | 19 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 323-336 |
| Publication date | 2021-01-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | PASOS Revista de Turismo y Patrimonio Cultural (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1695-7121 • E-ISSN: 1695-7121 |
| Publisher | University of La Laguna (PUBLISHER • ES) |
| DOI | 10.25145/j.pasos.2021.19.021 |
| OpenAlex | W3158535008 |
| Language | ES |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 11 |
TIn this paper, the Chilean tourism demand experienced during the period 2000-2018 has been modelled using a linear regression model with dichotomous variables (MRL) and an ARIMA model with a seasonal component (SARIMA). The results show that the SARIMA approach is more effective in replicating the non-stationary, non-linear behaviour and the presence of seasonality in the series, with the forecasts obtained from this model presenting a low rate of error, in this case -5.6% for outbound tourism and -5.9% for inbound tourism. In consequence, this approach may be an effective tool for forecasting forecast tourism demand in the short term, and support for planning and management in the sector in the face of fluctuations in tourism demand
Autoregressive integrated moving average · Econometrics · Economics · Economy · Exponential smoothing · Geography · Statistics · Time series · Tourism · Welfare economics · Diverse Aspects of Tourism Research · Mathematics
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| Unique citing works | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,33 |
| Citation span | 2023 - 2023 (1) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 1 |