Are Individuals with Persistently High Conspiracy Mentality Also Persistently Vaccine-Hesitant? Findings from a Three-Wave Panel Study

Bibliographic Data

ID5954264
AuthorsMonika Lamot (0000-0002-5458-9792, University of Maribor, corresponding author), Andrej Kirbiš (0000-0002-4837-5368, University of Maribor), Katja Kerman (0000-0002-7786-7265, University of Maribor)
Year2025
Volume388
Pages118770-118770
Publication date2025-11-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueSocial Science & Medicine (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0277-9536 • E-ISSN: 1873-5347
PublisherElsevier BV (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1016/j.socscimed.2025.118770
PMID41240658
OpenAlexW7104521254
LanguageEN
Citations received1
References cited52

Conspiracy mentality and vaccine hesitancy are frequently linked, yet most evidence is cross-sectional and cannot separate stable between-person differences from within-person change. Thus, it remains unclear whether conspiracy mentality drives vaccine hesitancy or vice versa. In addition, trust in science has been proposed as a key pathway connecting the two. To tackle these questions, we carried out a three-wave panel of adults (N = 574, Mean age = 52.80, SD = 15.88; 47.4 % men), who were followed over four months. Conspiracy mentality, trust in science, and vaccine hesitancy were measured at each wave. Longitudinal measurement invariance was evaluated prior to modeling. In the cross-lagged panel model, a small cross-lag emerged from conspiracy mentality at Wave 2 to vaccine hesitancy at Wave 3; other cross-lags were non-significant. In the random-intercept cross-lagged panel model, all within-person cross-lags were non-significant, while the random-intercept correlation between the two constructs was strong, indicating substantial trait-level overlap. A three-wave, time-lagged mediation model showed a significant indirect effect from conspiracy mentality to vaccine hesitancy via lower trust in science. The findings suggest that conspiracy mentality and vaccine hesitancy co-exist as stable, correlated dispositions rather than displaying robust short-term within-person effects. At the population level, lower trust in science appears to be a key pathway linking conspiracy mentality to higher vaccine hesitancy. Interventions should therefore emphasize building trust in science.

Causal inference · Mediation · Panel data · Population · Psychological intervention · Public health · Qualitative research · Misinformation and Its Impacts · SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research · Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy · Epidemiology

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