Improving opinion poll reporting
The Irish Polling Indicator
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6074944 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Tom Louwerse (0000-0003-4131-2724, Leiden University, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2016 |
| Volume | 31 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 541-566 |
| Publication date | 2016-10-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Irish Political Studies (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0790-7184 • E-ISSN: 1743-9078 |
| Publisher | Informa UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/07907184.2016.1213719 |
| OpenAlex | W2527453468 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 2 |
| References cited | 17 |
This article describes a statistical method for aggregating the information from Irish opinion polls. Such aggregate estimates provide academic researchers with a time series of support for political parties, and inform the public better about opinion polls by focusing on trends and uncertainty in these estimates. The article discusses the challenge of aggregating opinion polls in a multi-party setting with a comparatively limited number of polls available and presents daily estimates of party support for the 1987–2016 period. The article develops a method to better model major sudden political and societal events, which have been common in Ireland since 2007. Finally, it discusses how polling aggregation estimates can enhance opinion poll reporting in the media
Irish · Opinion poll · Political science · Politics · Polling · Public opinion · Computer Science · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Law · Populism, Right-Wing Movements · Social Media and Politics
Public Opinion and Public Policy
Off the Fence, Onto the Bandwagon? A Large-Scale Survey Experiment on Effect of Real-Life Poll Outcomes on Subsequent Vote Intentions
The Utility of Unpacking Survey Bias in Multiparty Elections
Pre-Election Polling
Regulating Disinformation
Why the 1936 Literary Digest Poll Failed
Modeling Certainty with Clustered Data
Government Responsiveness and Political Competition in Comparative Perspective
Pooling the polls over an election campaign
Confidence Intervals for Clustered Samples
From polls to votes to seats
Picking the winner(s)
Combining national and constituency polling for forecasting
Economic voting in a crisis
The conditionality of the trade-off between government responsiveness and effectiveness
| Unique citing works | 2 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,22 |
| Citation span | 2017 - 2021 (5) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 2 |