The decline of a dominant political monolith

Understanding Fianna Fáil’s vote 1987–2016

Datos Bibliográficos

ID6074993
AutoresStephen Quinlan (0000-0002-3197-4663, GESIS - Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences, autor de correspondencia), Martin Okolikj (0000-0002-8326-8576, UCD Geary Institute for Public Policy, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland)
Año2017
Volumen32
Número1
Páginas164-190
Fecha de publicación2017-01-02
Peer ReviewedSí
Open AccessNo
TipoARTICLE
RevistaIrish Political Studies (JOURNAL)
Identificadores de la revistaISSN: 0790-7184 • E-ISSN: 1743-9078
EditorialInforma UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1080/07907184.2016.1272585
OpenAlexW2574512944
IdiomaEN
Citas recibidas6
Referencias citadas39

Our study explores the declining vote of Fianna Fáil, Ireland’s dominant party using a unique fusion of data from the 1989–1999 European Election Studies and the 2002–2016 Irish National Election Studies. We show the weakening of Fianna Fáil’s dominant position is due to electoral change: shifting voter identities and the growing importance of economic evaluations in deciding the vote, which became prominent in the 2000s. Today, there are fewer partisans in general and this has impacted the party, especially since the Global Financial Crisis, when the proportion of Fianna Fáil identifiers dropped substantially. Meanwhile, the party relies on the votes of the oldest generation, a declining slice of the electorate. Further, more highly educated voters have become less likely to vote for the party in the 2000s, meaning Fianna Fáil is drawing significantly less support from a growing segment of the electorate. Finally, the Fianna Fáil vote in the 2000s has been shaped by voters’ economic perceptions, whereas these mattered little before this. Although this benefitted it in 2002 and 2007, it cost the party significant support in 2011. Our findings have implications for why dominant parties are declining and for our understanding of the Irish party system

Economics · Irish · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Irish and British Studies · Law · Populism, Right-Wing Movements · Public Administration