Forecasting the Presidential and Congressional Elections of 2012
The Trial-Heat and the Seats-in-Trouble Models
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6096985 |
|---|---|
| Authors | James E Campbell (0000-0001-6901-6834, University at Buffalo, State University of New York, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2012 |
| Volume | 45 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 630-634 |
| Publication date | 2012-10-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | PS Political Science & Politics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1049-0965 • E-ISSN: 1537-5935 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1017/s104909651200090x |
| OpenAlex | W2119640154 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 12 |
| References cited | 13 |
This article presents forecasts of the 2012 presidential and US House of Representatives elections. The presidential forecasts are of the national two-party presidential vote percentage for the in-party candidate and are based on the trial-heat and economy forecasting equation and its companion convention-bump equation. The House election forecast is of the net seat change for the Democratic Party from 2010 to 2012. This forecast is produced from two versions of a seats-in-trouble forecasting equation
Convention · Democracy · Econometrics · Economics · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Presidential system · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy · Law · Media Influence and Politics · Public Administration
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| Unique citing works | 12 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,92 |
| Citation span | 2013 - 2017 (5) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 6 |