Good News for Bush? Economic News, Personal Finances, and the 2004 Presidential Election
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6099654 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Thomas M Holbrook (0000-0002-9637-5768, University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2004 |
| Volume | 37 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 759-761 |
| Publication date | 2004-10-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | PS Political Science & Politics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1049-0965 • E-ISSN: 1537-5935 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1017/s1049096504045081 |
| OpenAlex | W3175186024 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 8 |
| References cited | 3 |
The forecasting model presented here is a revised version of a model developed prior to the 1996 election (Holbrook 1996) and is essentially a referendum model. The original model regressed the incumbent party percent of the two-party vote on presidential popularity, an aggregate measure of satisfaction with personal finances, and a dummy variable coded “1” for years in which the incumbent party had held the White House for at least two consecutive terms and “0” for all other years. The first two variables are intended to capture the political and economic performance of the incumbent administration, while the latter variable (borrowed from Abramowitz 1988) is based on the idea that it may be easier to convince voters that it is “time for a change” if the incumbent party has held the White House for at least two consecutive terms. This model provided a fairly accurate forecast of the 1996 election and also had close out-of-sample post-dictions of elections from 1952–1992. However, the 2000 election represented a significant bump in the road, and the model over-predicted Gore's percent of the vote by approximately 10 percentage points
Advertising · Business · Economics · General election · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Popularity · Presidential election · Presidential system · Primary election · Referendum · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy · Law · Mathematics · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
A Bayesian Prediction Model for the U.S. Presidential Election
Election Forecasting
Incumbency, National Conditions, and the 2008 Presidential Election
Incumbency, National Conditions, and the 2012 Presidential Election
The Myth of Presidential Representation
Deconstructing the 2004 Presidential Election Forecasts
The Evolution of Election Polling in the United States
A Post-Mortem and Update of the Economic News and Personal Finances Forecasting Model
| Citations per year | 0.38 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2005 - 2012 (8) |
| Highly cited | No |