Forecasting with Mixed Economic Signals
A Cautionary Tale
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6100185 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Thomas M Holbrook (0000-0002-9637-5768, University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2001 |
| Volume | 34 |
| Issue | 01 |
| Pages | 39-44 |
| Publication date | 2001-03-01 |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | PS Political Science & Politics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1049-0965 • E-ISSN: 1537-5935 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1017/s1049096501000063 |
| OpenAlex | W2111233238 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 13 |
| References cited | 4 |
In every respect, the 2000 election defied what had become the conventional wisdom about American presidential elections—that the electorate rewards the incumbent administration for good economic times and punishes it for bad economic times. Occurring at a time when the incumbent president enjoyed fairly high levels of approval and the nation enjoyed relative economic prosperity, it seemed the 2000 election had all the markings of an election in which voters would support the status quo and vote to return a Democrat to the White House. Indeed, a group of election forecasters gathered at the 2000 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association and offered predictions that Gore would win a plurality of the two-party popular vote that ranged from 52.8% to 60.3%.The forecasts were as follows: Alan Abramowitz, 53.2%; James Campbell, 52.8%; Thomas Holbrook, 60.3%; Michael Lewis-Beck and Charles Tien, 55.4%; Brad Lockerbie, 60.3% (revised after the APSA roundtable); Helmut Norpoth, 55.0%; Christopher Wlezien and Robert Erikson, 55.2%. All forecasts are for the incumbent party candidate's percent of the two-party vote. Of course, we now know that although Gore did manage to win the popular vote by the slimmest of margins, he lost the electoral vote by an equally slim margin, and George W. Bush was elected president
Contingent vote · Economic history · Economics · Group voting ticket · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Presidential election · Presidential system · Prosperity · Status quo · Voting · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy · Law · Media Influence and Politics
The Role of the Economy, Security and Party Leader Acceptance in Forecasting the 2020 General Election in Jamaica
Did the Gore Campaign Underemphasize the Economy in 2000
Incumbency, National Conditions, and the 2008 Presidential Election
Economic Considerations and the 2008 Presidential Election
Was the 2000 Presidential Election Predictable
Incumbency, National Conditions, and the 2012 Presidential Election
Beyond the Recounts
The campaign dynamics of economic voting
Evidence on the importance of spatial voting models in presidential nominations and elections
The 2000 Presidential Election and the Foundations of Party Politics
National Conditions, Trial-heat Polls, and the 2016 Election
Bringing the President Back In
Reconsidering individual-level heterogeneity in economic voting
| Citations per year | 0.52 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2001 - 2022 (22) |
| Highly cited | No |