Controversies in Exit Polling

Implementing a Racially Stratified Homogenous Precinct Approach

Bibliographic Data

ID6100210
AuthorsMatt A Barreto (0000-0003-2423-6395, University of Washington), Fernando Guerra, Fernando J Guerra (Loyola Marymount University), Mara Marks, Mara A Marks (Loyola Marymount University), Stephen A Nuño (University of California, Irvine), Nathan D Woods (0000-0001-8556-4769, Welch Foundation)
Year2006
Volume39
Issue03
Pages477-483
Publication date2006-07-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessNo
TypeARTICLE
VenuePS Political Science & Politics (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1049-0965 • E-ISSN: 1537-5935
PublisherCambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1017/s1049096506060689
OpenAlexW2096392092
LanguageEN
Citations received20
References cited23

In November 2000, exit poll interviews with voters in Florida indicated that Al Gore won the state. As a result, many television networks declared Gore the winner of Florida, a pivotal state to winning the presidency in 2000. Only a few hours later, the first vote tallies from the Florida Secretary of State's office revealed that George W. Bush was in fact leading in Florida. After 45 days of recounts and lawsuits, it was clear that the exit polls were wrong; Bush had won the state by the narrowest of margins. As a result of the flawed exit poll the media and pollsters scoured and reanalyzed the methodology used in 2000 to prepare and correct for the 2004 presidential election. The old system, Voter News Service (VNS) was scrapped entirely, and Edison-Mitofsky Research was chosen to implement a new and more accurate national exit poll in 2004 by a consortium of news organizations retained by the Associated Press called the National Election Pool (NEP). What happened? Exit poll results from Edison-Mitofsky showed John Kerry ahead in Ohio, Florida, and New Mexico—all states which he lost to Bush in 2004.Author names are listed alphabetically. The co-authors were also the co-principal investigators of the Loyola Marymount University 2005 Los Angeles Mayoral Exit Poll. Thanks to Salvador Paniagua and Haven Perez for their tremendous research assistance in implementing this project and to the more than 120 student researchers who participated in the exit polling and data entry. Robert Aguinaga and Antonio Gonzalez of the Southwest Voter Registration and Education Project also provided valuable assistance in implementing the poll. Mark Blumenthal, of mysterypollster.com was instrumental in tracking down exit poll archives

Political science · Politics · Polling · Presidency · Presidential system · Victory · Computer Science · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Law · Public Administration · Survey Methodology and Nonresponse · Urban, Neighborhood, and Segregation Studies

Tools

Open DOISci-Hub