Measuring Electoral Change in Three-Party Systems
An Alternative to Swing
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6105856 |
|---|---|
| Authors | D F L Dorling, Daniel Dorling (Newcastle University), C J Pattie, Charles Pattie (0000-0003-4578-178X, University of Nottingham), Ron Johnston (0000-0003-3031-8573, University of Essex), R J Johnston (0000-0001-7523-2701) |
| Year | 1993 |
| Volume | 26 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 737-741 |
| Publication date | 1993-12-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | PS Political Science & Politics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1049-0965 • E-ISSN: 1537-5935 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.2307/419541 |
| OpenAlex | W4232224552 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 14 |
In a recent paper in this journal, Butler and Van Peek (1990) advocated analyzing patterns of electoral change in the USA with the swing statistic—the average change in the share of the vote won by two parties contesting successive elections. The generality of their case was countered by Rose (1991), who showed that most liberal democracies do not have two-party systems; thus the swing statistic, which involves comparing the performance of two parties only, conceals more than it reveals of the pattern of electoral change in most situations. His preference was for the separate study of the “ups and downs” of each party. In a riposte to Rose, Gibson (1992) argued for the superiority of swing over the single party measures. His case was built on a curious argument, however. On the basis of goodness-of-fit statistics, he showed that a combination of independent variables relating to the characteristics of constituencies in Greater London predicted variations in swing better than they predicted variations in the performance of individual parties. Such analyses in no way indicate the superiority of swing as a measure of electoral change, however; they merely demonstrate that swing is more closely correlated to some independent variables than is another measure of change. Gibson's argument is a case of a spurious correlation
Art · Econometrics · Economics · Generality · Management · Political science · Sociology · Spurious relationship · Statistic · Statistics · Swing · Computer Science · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Mathematics
Seats, Votes, and the Spatial Organization of Elections
Spatial continuity and individual variability
The Ups and Downs of Elections, or Look Before You Swing
Measuring Electoral Change
Research Notes
Dealignment, spatial polarisation and economic voting
Tactical Voting in Great Britain in 1983 and 1987
The components of voting change in England 1983-1987
Is the Seesaw Tipping Back? The End of Thatcherism and Changing Voting Patterns in Great Britain 1979-92
| Citations per year | 0.03 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 1997 - 1997 (1) |
| Highly cited | No |