Being able to breathe again

Sub-Saharan Africa is experiencing mounting economic and livelihood pressures as climate change intensifies, leading to frequent droughts, extreme temperatures, and unpredictable rainfall that reduce agricultural productivity and destabilize household incomes. In response, migration has emerged as a key coping strategy, with individuals and households relocating to urban areas or other countries in search of better opportunities. This study investigates climate-induced mobility in Tanzania, Ethiopia, Uganda, and Malawi. Using data from the World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, the World Development Indicators, and the Global Migration Data Portal, a fixed-effects model was employed to analyze how droughts, temperature fluctuations, and rainfall variability influence migration dynamics. Findings revealed that climate change and economic vulnerability jointly shape migration in sub-Saharan Africa. A major drought event or a 1°C rise in temperature was associated with a 2–3% increase in migration, especially in agriculture-dependent economies such as Ethiopia and Uganda. A 20–30% decline in rainfall reduced rural incomes by up to 15%, triggering 5–7% rural-to-urban migration. Repeated droughts lowered farm productivity by 12–18% and raised migration by 10–15%, while stronger economies and stable governance reduced mobility by up to 40%. Youth aged 18–35 constitute the majority of migrants seeking better livelihoods. The fixed-effects results showed that temperature significantly influenced migration in Ethiopia and Uganda, whereas moderate rainfall had a weaker effect. The study concludes that human mobility serves as both an economic and environmental adaptation to climate stress. It recommends strategies such as livelihood diversification, youth employment creation, strengthening agricultural resilience, and expanding social protection systems to support sustainable adaptation

Agricultural productivity · Agriculture · Climate change · Coping (psychology · Corporate governance · Extreme weather · Livelihood · Productivity · Vulnerability (computing · Climate Change and Health Impacts · Climate change impacts on agriculture · Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration