Key binding constraints, structural reform, and growth potential of Azerbaijan via economic diversification
A computable general equilibrium policy impact analysis
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6154597 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Gouranga G Das (0000-0002-3963-8517, Hanyang University, corresponding author), Edimon Ginting (Asian Development Bank), Aimee Hampel (Asian Development Bank), Mark Horridge (0000-0002-1070-5763, Victoria University) |
| Year | 2022 |
| Volume | 13 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 119-144 |
| Publication date | 2022-05-10 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Eurasian Studies (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1879-3665 • E-ISSN: 1879-3673 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publishing (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1177/18793665221096688 |
| OpenAlex | W4229448885 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 29 |
Being highly dependent on the oil sector, Azerbaijan suffered from economic downturn due to sharp fall in oil prices in 2015. However, such dependence creates development challenges for her. Simulated impact of prioritized economic reform policies—using a computable general equilibrium model (AZEORANI)—shows that, under the business-as-usual case with oil prices at 2011 level, it is projected to grow by 2.0% a year to 2030. However, consistent policy reforms enable enhanced growth by another 1.1 percentage points annually due to productivity boost and increased exports from non-oil sectors, viz., tourism and agriculture. In particular, following strategic roadmap, we consider baseline and policy shocks—10% improvement in productive efficiency, investment boost by 5% in non-mineral sector, and enhanced agricultural efficiency by 5%, and boost in tourism and transport by 10% via logistics-infrastructure, and technical progress in manufacturing over long run by 10–20% per annum. All these show that economic reforms have potentials to induce positive impact to overcome the binding constraints inhibiting growth and hence could promote economic development of Azerbaijan
Agriculture · Business · Computable general equilibrium · Diversification (marketing strategy · Economic policy · Economics · General equilibrium theory · Investment (military · Macroeconomics · Natural resource economics · Productivity · Recession · Tourism · Economic Growth and Productivity · Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth · Natural Resources and Economic Development
| Unique citing works | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,33 |
| Citation span | 2023 - 2023 (1) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 1 |